12pm update - a close above the 50dma?

US equities continue to battle upward, with a new cycle high of sp'2105.. a clear break above the 50dma. Indeed, the real issue now is whether we will see a post FOMC reversal... or the gains holding, with a daily close in the sp'2100s. Considering the VIX is already crushed in the 12s... the bulls face a problem.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily2

Summary

*the blue candle on the VIX turns red... if it closes red.. it would bode in favour of the equity bears into early/mid August.
--

little to add... ahead of the Fed.
--

VIX update from Mr T.



-
time to see what the cheerleaders on clown finance TV are saying...

11am update - pre-FOMC washout

US equities continue to battle upward, with a new cycle high of sp'2102.. with VIX in the 12.80s. Hourly equity cycles are on the high side, and despite the current gains... a daily close >2100 will be difficult. USD is starting to cool -0.1% in the DXY 96.60s. Oil has built sig' gains of 2.2%.. as inventories show a net draw of -4.2 mill'


sp'60min

VIX'60min'2

Summary

*washout.. as in the market washing out the weaker bears.
--

This is getting somewhat annoying (not least in terms of the VIX).... but then.. its a fed day.

For me.. what matters is where... and the style in which we close the day.
--

As it is, we're now around 2% higher from the Monday low... based on what... good earnings data?

notable weakness: TWTR -12.9%... no opening reversal.... price action looks ugly into the autumn.

strength: oil/gas drillers, RIG +3%, SDRL +8%... but the broader trend remains bearish.

10am update - opening chop

US equities open with some minor chop, with the sp' hitting 2097...and VIX in the low 13s. There are multiple aspects of resistance around the sp'2100 threshold, and considering the hourly equity/VIX cycles, the market looks set for some weakness in the late afternoon.


sp'60min

VIX'daily2

Summary

*a second blue candle in the VIX, I want to see it turn green by the close... will need at least the 14s.
--

Well, in many ways... its a case of 'come back in 4 hours time'. Until the FOMC announcement is out of the way... there really isn't much to add.

That will give opportunity to highlight some other things though...

--
notable weakness... TWTR

Ugly break lower... first target is the psy' level of $30, but the IPO price of $26 is an equally valid target, given another 2-3 months.
-


10.03am.. Pending home sales m/m -1.8%... another lousy number from June. There remain a sig' number of data points that don't bode well for Q2 GDP. 

Market is expecting 2.9% growth, but to me.. that seems overly optimistic. I'd not be surprised to see 1.5% or lower. Oh well, we'll find out tomorrow at 8.30am.