Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +5pts, we're set to open at 2098. From a pure cyclical perspective, equities will be particularly vulnerable later today and into early Thursday. With the USD broadly flat, metals and Oil are similarly u/c.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

Well, its Fed day... again.

Expect a lot of minor chop into the afternoon. Then.. some swings... and then the market is going to pick a direction... and likely stay with it into next week.

There is key GDP data tomorrow morning.. so that will be an issue... but still... equity bears should be somewhat desperate for a net daily decline today... even a moderate one.

*I am long-VIX. I can imagine the 12s will be hit (if briefly) today.. which won't be so great... I'd sure like to see a daily close at least in the 14s.. if not the 15s.
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notable early movers..

TWTR -9% in the $33s. An ugly reversal from the AH high of $40.90. It would seem that acting CEO Dorsey can really upset the market with each word he mutters.

YELP -20%.. post earnings upset

AKAM -9%... another post earnings sell off.

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Overnight China action: There was talk of a $100bn Govt' fund to prop up equities, which sure helped turn the Shanghai comp' in the late afternoon, settling +3.4% @ 3789. Broadly... renewed downside remains due.. to the 3200/3000 zone. 2500 remains a valid capitulation low in early Oct'.
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Doom chatter, Hunter with Roberts



As ever.. make of that.. .what you will.
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Have a good Wednesday!
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8.01am... re: TWTR...

Keep in mind the IPO price was $26 in Nov' 2013. The lowest level ever traded was $29.51 (May 7th 2014). Considering anticipated main market weakness into the early autumn, and the break to the 32s post earnings, further weakness to the IPO price looks probable.
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8.48am.. Indexes cooling.. back to flat...   sp' 2093.  Regardless of the exact open though.... minor chop into the afternoon. Then things get dynamic.

The importance of the monthly 10MA

Whilst equities saw a significance bounce from the Monday low of sp'2063 to 2095, the bigger picture remains increasingly bearish. There remains a high chance that the market will see a monthly close under the 10MA.. currently @ sp'2066.


sp'monthly1b

Summary

I think the chart and annotations speak for itself.

Suffice to add... if we do get some degree of sig' correction under sp'2000 this Aug-Oct', what then follows will shape the following 2-3 years.

*The Transports and Dow are already below their respective 10MAs... but frankly.. I'm tired... and I can't cover all the indexes in every post!
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Looking ahead

Wed' is Fed day, the FOMC announcement is due at 2pm.... but there will NOT be a Yellen press conf'.

Data: EIA oil report, Pending home sales.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed significantly higher, sp +25pts @ 2093. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 2.7% and 0.8% respectively. Near term outlook is for renewed weakness... once the FOMC is out of the way... with a move to the sp'2050s... and VIX 17/18s.


sp'daily5

Trans

Summary

*the market laggard - Trans, remains under key declining resistance, despite a powerful net daily gain.
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As for the sp'500... sustained price action back above the 2100 threshold looks difficult in the near term. I would expect the 2050s within 3-5 trading days.
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a little more later...