12pm update - approaching an interesting level

US equities are battling higher, with a target zone of 2085/90, and VIX set for the 14.25/14.00 zone. The Tuesday low of sp'2063 sure doesn't feel like a multi-day/week cycle floor, and there seems high probability of lower levels before the monthly close.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*I remain on standby to pick up another VIX-long position.. anything in the low 14s is arguably 'fine', not least after having exited from 16.10 yesterday afternoon. Typically, I'd like to wait until the 2pm hour.

Broadly, it shall remain the case that I'll want to be long VIX into early October... but I will trade in/out... to cash some profits.. when it seems wise.
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This morning, the cheerleaders on clown finance TV sure did seem particularly concerned about a possible sixth consecutive net daily decline. All things considered, we do look set for a net daily gain... but the sp'2050s do look due to end the week/month.

Indeed... any monthly close under the 10MA (currently @ 2065) will be VERY important... but more on that issue later today.

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VIX update from Mr T.



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time for tea.. or something
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12.07pm... .sp'2085...   VIX 14.16......  the smaller 5/15min cycles are getting way maxed/floored respectively

Its getting real tempting at these levels.
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12.14pm.. I am LONG VIX from 14.15... with sp'2084.

All things considered, that seems a reasonable level.


12.22pm... .. and VIX promptly drops into the upper 13s.     with sp'2086.     Oh well.... I ain't gonna worry. 
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notable strength: Oil +2.3% in the $48s... a one day bounce... in a broader down trend?

11am update - morning chop

US equities remain moderately choppy... trying to hold a floor of sp'2069, with VIX peaking at 15.62. Price structure is offering a slow upward battle to the sp'2085/90 zone.. along with VIX 14.50... and that might well take us into the FOMC annoucement tomorrow afternoon.


sp'60min

Summary

We've seen this kind of nonsense many times before. Bears get teased in the morning... but there just isn't any downside power right now.. and we're set to battle upward into the mid afternoon.

I think it remains a case of 'lets see where we are in the 2pm hour'.

*I continue to seek a new VIX long from the mid 14s... for now.. there seems no hurry.

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I would refer anyone to the following.. and suggest they stare at it for a good 20 minutes.

Dow' weekly1b

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time for a slightly early lunch
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11.17am.. VIX 14.50.. with sp'2080....

A few more hours.... 14.00 with 2085/90... seems a given.      

yours... Mr Patient (at least for this morning)

10am update - shaky opening gains

US equities open moderately higher, but the gains sure look shaky, with the Nasdaq comp' and R2K already turning red. The hourly equity cycle is threatening upward grind across today, with a viable target of sp'2085/90 zone.. along with VIX in the mid/low 14s.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

R2K, daily

Summary

*I'm on the sidelines. and remain seeking to pick up another VIX-long block... but considering price structure... I'm in no hurry.. not least with the FOMC tomorrow afternoon.

For now.... watching, and I'm content to give the bull manaics the better part of today.. 2pm.. lets see where we are then.
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From a pure MACD (blue bar histogram) cyclical perspective, we're set for a bullish cross by midday, and that would bode for at least another hour or so higher this afternoon.
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The earnings continue to come in... revenue misses remain an issue for many. No doubt, many of the EPS beats are via all sorts of 'accounting tricks'. Good work if you can get it.
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notable weakness: coal miners, CNX -5%

TWTR, -1%.. ahead of earnings. Another fail.. with a loss of the big $30 threshold looks probable. After all, it can't make any money.
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10.01am consumer confidence.. 90.9.. a big drop from the prev' 99.6.     Hmm

Chicago PMI is this Friday.. it will be important for the bulls to get back above the recession threshold of 50.0