Daily Wrap

US equities closed moderately mixed, sp -5pts @ 2115 (intra low 2110). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.3% and +0.3% respectively. Near term outlook offers further weakness to the sp'2100 threshold, the lower gap zone of 2080 remains a valid target, but VIX 15s look increasingly difficult, as the market simply isn't concerned.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

*the VIX settled -1.0% @ 12.10.. certainly a non-confirmatory signal for today's second consecutive day of equity weakness.
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So, a second day of weakness for the broader equity market, but for the bears, it remains a problem in that the declines are only minor, and this is being reflected in the VIX.

Best bear case in the near term remains a hit of the secondary gap zone of sp'2080. Considering the price action in the VIX today, that might only equate to VIX 15.30s (lower end of gap zone).. at best... and very briefly.
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Looking ahead

Thursday will see weekly job claims and leading indicators. In the scheme of things though, market will be paying more attention to corp' earnings.

*AMZN will post earnings (or the usual.. lack of)... at the close

The daily black-fail candle seen on Monday likely marks a near term top...  first downside is around 420/400.. a clear 15% or so lower. As ever though, being a profitless momo stock, Mr Market might just ignore another lousy quarter, and still burn out the existing shorts.

Still... those black-fail candles are not to be dismissed lightly. AMZN bulls... beware!
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Back in London

Traveling away from the coast, and back into the city is never easy. It has always felt like part of my soul is getting ripped out. This morning was not much different, but this time, I returned with the realisation that my next exit from the city will likely be a one way ticket. That thought is something I am very bullish about!

A glimpse of this morning...

Yeah, I sure could live with waking up to that every day.

Goodnight from London
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ps. normal service will resume tomorrow.

.. and thanks for the emails. I've still to reply, as I'm having issues with sending outbound mail.

Closing Brief

US equities closed moderately mixed, sp -5pts @ 2115 (intra low 2110). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.3% and +0.3% respectively. Near term outlook offers further weakness to the sp'2100 threshold, the lower gap zone of 2080 remains a valid target, but VIX 15s look increasingly difficult, as the market simply isn't concerned.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*I am pretty tired.. have already fallen asleep once this evening.. so this shall be super brief
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A truck load of earnings due at the close.. not least QCOM. Considering recent price action in INTC and AAPL, you'd have to be pretty bullish to consider QCOM will not get a post earnings smack down.
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Day'2 for the equity bears, but clearly, the price action is only moderate weakness, we're just not seeing any real downside power.


At best.. sp'2080.. with VIX up the 14.70/15.30 zone. The latter though won't be easy.

*yours truly remains moderately long VIX, seeking an exit in that zone, but it sure is taking some time.
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4.07pm   QCOM earnings... come in mixed...

Daily chart shows multiple resistance around $66. I do not expect QCOM to be able to break/hold above $68.

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a daily wrap at 8pm EST...

3pm update - a second day lower

Good afternoon. Equities remain moderately weak, with most indexes set to close moderately weak. Further weakness looks due, at least to the sp'2100 threshold. Metal are broadly weak, Gold -$6. Oil is seeing some rather severe downside, -3.4% in the 49s. The March lows look highly vulnerable.


sp#'daily5

VIX daily3

Summary

Well, I'm back in the metropolis of London. If all goes well, my next trip out of the city will be a via a one way ticket to pirate land! Am pretty exhausted!
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As for equities, weakness for a second day, but clearly nothing significant.
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With the VIX now -0.9%, it does reflect a market that is showing the underlying strength.
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notable weakness: AAPL -4.3%, MSFT -3.9%..  tech monsters looking tired.

 Copper miners, FCX -4.5%, TCK -3.2%.. as copper prices -1.9% @ $2.42.
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Still trying to catchup...

GDX -0.4%.... trying to put in a reversal from the mid $13s.. but looks utterly destroyed on the bigger weekly/month cycles.

Regardless of any short term bounce - as also applies to Gold/Silver, the miners look pretty doomed... GDX to 12/10s sure doesn't look overly bold within a few months... not least as Gold is headed to the giant $1k threshold.
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3.20pm. BAC 2.1%... into the mid $18s. Did they have earnings today? A monthly close in the $18s would be a pretty clear breakout.. much as INTC <$29 is a major fail.

Some rather strong disparity between sector... energy/resources remain broadly weak.. as King dollar remains real close to breaking back into the DXY 100s.
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3.45pm.. the rats are getting a little twitchy into the close.... as we're set to close lower for two consecutive days. Ohh the humanity... is it time for one of the fed officials to threaten QE4 yet?