US equities are likely maxing out.. at least for a day or two. With a few aspects of resistance around sp'2100, there is viable cooling to the 2085/80 zone... before resuming higher this Wed/Thursday on Yellen 'unicorns and rainbows' chatter to the US congress/senate.
sp'60min
Summary
I am trying not to get lost in the minor noise... with eyes on the bigger weekly cycles. As noted earlier for the VIX, I'd have to think the equity bears could simply side-step the next 2-3 weeks.
The sporadic Greek headlines remain tiresome... how many more years of Greek drama?
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notable strength: NFLX,
daily
The momo chasers are out in force today... battling to break a new high >$706.24. I like the company, but at a current PE around 300.... (low 200s if you assume growth in 2016)... this is still an insanely priced stock.
Will be one to watch across Sept/early Oct, if the main market gets whacked lower.
*NFLX will see the stock split (7 for 1) implemented as of this Wednesday morning.
10.57am. ... NFLX breaks the Icahn/stock split announcement high.... bears on the run...
US equities open higher, and are building gains toward the price gap zone of sp'2098/2101. VIX is naturally cooling, -12% @ 14.70s. USD is +0.6% in the DXY 95.50s. Metals are naturally weak, Gold -$10, with Silver -1.4%. Oil is similarly weak, -1.1% in the $51s.
sp'60min
VIX'weekly2
Summary
*the above VIX chart is something new, and I will be frequently referring to it across the next few months.
Best guess... VIX cools for 2-3 weeks... levels out.. and then UP. Whether some indexes can break new historic highs between now and August.. difficult to say.
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Busy morning... bear with me.....
As things are... market looks set to max out around sp'2100... and then cool to the 2090/85 zone... forming a bull flag... taking us into early Tuesday.
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notable strength: NFLX +3% @ $701.... the momo chasers are out in force.
weakness, miners.. GDX -1.5%... as the metals slide... not helped by USD strength.
Good morning. With the Greeks provisionally agreeing to a third bailout - with terms/conditions worse than those the Greek people voted against just a week ago, equities futures have swung higher, sp +14pts, we're set to open around 2090. DXY is rallying, +0.3% in the DXY 96.30s.
sp'daily5
Summary
So... another Greek can kick.. at least 'provisionally'.
The only issue now is whether the market can break new historic highs (in some indexes, certainly not all) in August.. before more significant weakness into early October.
From a pure cyclical perspective, equity bears would probably do well to step aside for at least 2-3 weeks.
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Update from a BIG dip buyer.. Mr C.
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Doomer chat, Hunter with Mr Smith
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Overnight China action: the swings continue... but more moderate, after a little morning chop... the Shanghai comp' settled +2.4% @ 3970. The 4K level looks imminent, with bounce upside to the 4300/500 zone into August. I expect renewed weakness after mid August... to at least 3K... perhaps 2500 for a capitulation washout in Sept/Oct.
If correct, it will be interesting to see how the Chinese leadership respond to another major equity down wave. Will they have dedicated firing squads for equity bears, or just maybe just seize their homes and send them to the mines of Tibet? Would that be bullish resource sector?
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Have a good week.
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7.55am.. sp +14pts.. 2090... with a clear gap zone around 2100.
Meanwhile... some maniac is touting more GREXIT nonsense talk....
As ever... make of that.. what you will ;)
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9.00am.. sp' set to open around 2090... above first soft target... next level... price gap zone/threshold of 2100.
notable weakness: metals, Gold -$8... with Silver -0.5%... not helping the miners, GDX -0.8%
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9.37am.. Well.. there are the 2090s... next up... 2100 by 11am.. probably.. then some cooling.... back to 2090/85 zone.
