Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp + 7pts, we're set to open at 2115. USD remains weak, -0.1% in the DXY 95.20s. Metals are a touch weak, Gold -$1. The Greek drama is set to rumble on across today, equity bears should be battling for a daily close under the sp'2100 threshold.


sp'60min

Summary

Futures have cooled somewhat from earlier highs as sporadic headlines about Greece continue to give concern to some traders.

A Greek deal looks as far away as ever.. and the clock is ticking.
-

All things considered, there is little reason why the opening gains will be able to hold... I expect a second net daily decline. VIX 14s would offer further clarity that things will continue to unravel into next week.

notable early weakness, NFLX -1.0% @ $671... now a fair way lower than yesterdays opening spike high of $706.

--
Update from Oscar



--

Overnight action: China, -3.5% @ 4527.. having fallen apart in the late afternoon. Again.. the day to day swings are increasingly wild... a break <4K looks very probable. I remain somewhat bemused that many are not highlighting the 3400s as a downside target.

Have a good Thursday


8.31am jobless claims 271k.... remaining very stable. Next up.. PMI service sector data (9.45am).

sp +5pts.. 2113.   Still slowly cooling from earlier gains.
-

9.35am.. Opening reversal candle on the VIX..... equity indexes highly vulnerable to turning red.

Opening black-fail candle in the R2K.... again, suggestive this market is going to struggle today.


9.39am.. some waves of selling....  VIX turns positive


9.43am... and the indexes are turning negative.

notable weakness: NFLX -2.6%... major sell side underway

USD resumes cooling

Despite renewed concern that there will be no Greek deal agreed by end month, the USD saw a net daily decline of -0.2% @ DXY 95.48. The secondary target zone of 92/90 remains very viable, it will likely require some kind of last minute Greek deal. Regardless of the short term, the DXY 120s are coming.


USD, daily2

USD,monthly3

Summary

*I remain looking to go long the USD via UUP in the low $24s. For now, I'm content to wait another few weeks, not least if a Greek deal is arranged around end month.
-

Nothing has occurred to change my broader view for King Dollar. It would still seem the USD has built a giant multi-month bull flag, having seen a very natural retrace from the high of DXY 100.71 in mid March.

I am aware of a fair few analysts who note resistance at DXY 105, but really, once we break new multi-year highs, it should be a broadly straight hyper-ramp to the 120s into next year.


Looking ahead

Thursday will see the usual weekly jobs, pers' income/outlays, PMI service sector. 

*two fed officials will be speaking, but I don't believe the issues to be discussed will be relevant.
--

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -15pts @ 2108 (intra low 2009). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.8% and -0.9% respectively. Near term outlook is bearish, with viable downside to the 2060s by end month. From there... if the Greek can is successfully kicked... upside across July and into August.


sp'daily5

Nasdaq comp'

Trans

Summary

*fractional new historic high in the Nasdaq comp'
 ---

A useful day for the equity bears. We have a clear break lower on all the main US indexes. Further weakness looks due into early next week.

Not surprisingly, the Transports was particularly weak today, and that was despite WTIC Oil prices seeing a net daily decline of -1.4% @ $60.27. Next support is the big 8K threshold, and that is another 3.7% lower... which would probably equate to sp'2060s.
--

a little more later..