US equity indexes continue to slowly battle higher, with the sp +18pts @ 2128. There will be some sig' resistance in the 2130/35 zone, with the bigger weekly cycle offering the bull maniacs no more than 2140 in the immediate term. Metals remain weak, Gold -$16.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
VIX reflecting the marginal new cycle high in the sp'500.
All things considered, a latter day equity rollover seems probable.
It's going to be a long... long week.
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*Despite the broad market gains, INTC is set to turn red.. which is somewhat amusing to yours truly. Price structure remains a bear flag within a giant H/S formation (min' downside target $26/25 by Sept/Oct).
US equities open moderately higher, with notable new historic highs for the R2K and Nasdaq comp'. With the USD flat in the DXY 94.10s, the metals are starting the week badly, Gold -$13. Oil has seen a swift reversal, from +1.0%.. to -0.3%
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*opening VIX is not surprisingly lower, and reflects a market that still believes no capital controls, no default... no GREXIT. It will be interesting to see how high the VIX can spike when those things do come to pass.
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Lets get one thing quite clear...
This market will be extremely vulnerable to fierce down swings at any time this week.. and indeed, across the rest of the summer.
The mainstream remain in near complete denial about what is going on.
The Greek bank run continues... and the broad mood is worsening.
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notable weakness: AA -1.1%, now in the $11s... already close to summer target of $10/9.
strength: airlines, DAL +2.1%, UAL +3.2%... certainly helped by the opening swing in oil prices.
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*I remain short INTC, and long VIX.. and I am very content to ride this mornings nonsense out.
INTC starting the day with a black-fail candle...
I'm sure there are a fair few others out there today...
Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +9pts, we're set to open at 2119.. a mere 15pts shy of a new historic high. USD is +0.1% in the DXY 94.20s. Metals are on the slide, Gold -$7. Oil is holding early sig' gains of 1.0%, whilst Nas' gas -2.2%
sp'60min
sp'daily5
Summary
The week sure isn't starting so great for those holding short across the weekend (including yours truly). but the market will be exceptionally vulnerable to very powerful downside reversals throughout this week.
A net daily decline remains VERY viable.
First downside target for the equity bears should be a daily close back under the sp'2100 threshold.. a mere 0.5% lower.
My guess.... the Greeks will keep stalling until end month... when the can might get kicked for another month or two.
Such a stall should mean equities will be under pressure this week... and right now, I would be surprised if we don't take out the recent double floor of sp'2072.
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Doom chatter, Hunter with Griffin
I certainly don't agree with a fair bit of what was touted in this, but Griffin is still worth listening to.
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Greek chatter from poster jberni
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*overnight action.. China was actually shut for a public holiday... lucky for them, considering the huge Friday break lower.
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Have a good Monday
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9.13am.. clown finance TV - Cramer '.. there were no [Greek] bank runs'.
Yeah... sure there weren't.
Somewhat amusing to see the mainstream in near total denial.. until the day that Greece walk away into the sunset, default.. and eventually leave the Euro.
