12pm update - remaining broadly weak

US equities remain moderately weak, with a morning low of sp'2091, with VIX 14.02. With sporadic Greek headlines, the USD has turned lower, -0.2% in the DXY 94.80s. Metals remain moderately choppy, Gold -$1. Oil remains weak, -1.2%.. having lost the $60 threshold.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

Not much to add.

The VIX gap zone of 14.25/50 remains a tempting target...... would be suggestive of renewed weakness into the weekly close.

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notable weakness, INTC, -1.7%... I'll try to cover it in the next hour or two... as it is one of the strongest indirect signals that the bulls will NOT be able to rally in the near term. See recent 'fair value' post for more.. as it could be a leading warning of trouble for the broader market later this summer.

coal miners, BTU -4.8%... with stronger declines in ACI, ANR, WLT.. the trio of horror.

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VIX update from Mr T.   due

*seemingly.. another no show today.

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time for lunch :)

11am update - first support fails

Equities are increasingly weak as first support zone of sp'2100/95 fails to hold. VIX is reflecting some moderate market concern, +8% in the 13.90s, with upside to 14.25/50... likely equiv' to the spike low of sp'2085. USD has turned fractionally negative, and that is helping the metals, Gold +$2. Oil is failing to benefit though, -1.3%


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

Interesting morning for the bears, but overall... how many times has the market seen morning weakness like this... and we remember how it usually ends, yes?

VIX continues to reflect a market that simply has near zero concern of anything, not even a possible end month Greek debt default and/or exit from the Euro.

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notable strength: TWTR +1.1%.. but still.. that is a lousy outcome after yesterday AH gains.

The daily black-fail candle sums up the messy situation.

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weakness, oil/gas drillers, RIG -2.5%, SDRL -1.7%... as WTIC oil prices struggle, stuck within the $56/62 range.

*those seeking the sp'2140s and upward.. are going to need to see WTIC break into the $63s, the next set of inventory reports had better be another be major net draw downs.


11.15am... notable weakening in the USD, -0.3%..... having swung from early gains of +0.4%. Another 2-3 weeks lower in the USD...not long to wait until a viable mid term floor in the DXY 92/90 zone.


11.30am..  a minor up wave to sp'2099... with VIX rapidly cooling.

It remains somewhat messy, but who wants to be short ahead of Yellen next Wednesday?


11.33am.. INTC looking ugly, -1.3%, price structure is a clear bear flag.... bodes against upside into next week. Hmmmm

10am update - opening weakness

US equities open moderately lower, with the sp'500 testing the lower rising trend support around sp'2095. VIX remains relatively subdued, +6% in the 13.60s. USD +0.2% in the DXY 95.20s.. but looks vulnerable to a net daily decline. Metals have turned marginally positive, and look set for a sig' net weekly gain.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*there is a minor price gap in the VIX at 14.25/50, but that is out of range unless sp'2080s.. and frankly.. that looks unlikely.
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So, we're a little lower, but as is almost always the case.. the opening declines are nothing significant.

*if 2095 fails to hold... next level is the spike floor of 2085...

Equity bears continue to face the usual problems, and all things considered..  the low of day is probably already in.
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notable strength: TWTR +2%...  certainly not getting the major jump that many were expecting last evening. Daily candle has already turned into a black-fail....  what a mess!

weakness, coal miners, BTU -3.2%... $2.60s.... the horror continues
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10.03am.. meanwhile... on clown finance TV...

Both look so very happy that its almost the weekend.
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10.06am... sp'2101.. with VIX cooling....  looks like we do indeed have a retrace low of sp'2095.

Hourly, daily, weekly, monthly cycle, will all be offering the 2150s on a spike high at next Wed' FOMC.


10.27am.. Well, TWTR close to turning red, on rather huge vol' of 24 million. Maybe they need the interim CEO to quit too ?

Broader market still holding the earlier low... just.  VIX just not showing any sig' upside power.


10.37am.. So much for 2095 holding...    VIX jumps, 13.80s...

Whats the excuse, Greek concerns?