Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +9pts, we're set to open at 2089. USD remains in cooling mode, -0.2% @ DXY 94.90s. Metals are naturally climbing, Gold +$9. Oil is +2.7% in the $61s, after API data suggest tightening demand/supply.


sp'60min

Summary

Now its a case of whether the market can attain a daily close >sp'2100. That doesn't have to occur today, but it MUST happen in the current up wave, or the failure would mean we're headed back lower... at least to the rising 200dma (2046).

Not surprisingly, with the USD cooling - headed for DXY 92/90 zone, most $ denominated asset classes are seeing some upward pressure.

To me, the easy trade will be to go short - whether Gold, Oil, or (gods willing) the equity indexes, once the USD floors... but that is probably some weeks away. For now... I'm content to watch.

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Update from an unusually quiet Oscar



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Doomer chat, Hunter with the infamous Mannarino



I think its a case of Mr M' getting overly excited at the recent weakness. Calling a grand top is a bold call, and I think he is grossly wrong. What about the QE, buybacks, or low rates? What does Mannerino think people should do in the coming months/years.... start buying bonds... for a low/negative rate? Crazy.
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Have a good Wednesday

The significant correction

Even the mainstream are starting to come around to the notion that the US (if not most world equity markets) are increasingly due a significant correction of around 8-12% this summer/early autumn. Whether the market uses the excuse of Greece, deflationary concerns, or even higher rates.. is not important. What is important is that a washout somewhere under sp'2K in late summer looks due

Dow' weekly'4

Summary

First things first...

I am VERY open to the notion of another wave higher to around Dow 18400/600 zone into July.. possibly even dragging out into August - hence the fib' level on the chart!

Regardless of however strong the next wave is across the next month or so, I will be looking for the Dow to break rising trend (which as of end July will be around 17500).

Best guess is for a washout in the late summer to the 16500/000 zone.

I do NOT expect sustained price action <16K under any scenario this year.. even if Greece default on their foreign debt (not domestic!) and revert to the Drachma.

With continued QE from the ECB, BoJ (the list could go on), corporate share buybacks (need I remind some about GE into 2017?), and low interest rates, I do not believe a grand multi-year top is due for another two years.
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Looking ahead

Wed' will be pretty quiet, there is only the EIA oil report, and the US treasury budget. These days though, few care about the latter.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed somewhat mixed, sp +0.9pts @ 2080 (intra low 2072). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled -0.3%. Near term outlook offers further weakness to the 200dma (2046 and rising), but that will not be easy as the USD remains in a cooling phase.


sp'daily5

Trans

Summary

So, a bit of a mixed day in market land. A fair few indexes settled lower for the fourth consecutive day... lead by the Trans/R2K.

Overall... price action remains not particularly bearish.. not least whilst the broader upward trends (for most indexes.. certainly not all) remain intact.

Right now, best case for the equity bears is a test of the 200dma (sp'2046.. and rising)... before the next attempt to break new highs.. after the next FOMC (June 17th).
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Closing update from Riley


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a little more later...