US equity indexes are just holding the Friday low, with the sp' coming close at 2086.. along with VIX 15.08. Price action is suggestive of renewed upside.. not least helped as the USD is cooling, -0.5% in the DXY 95.70s. Metals are somewhat mixed, Gold +$1, whilst Silver -0.5%.
sp'60min
UUP, daily2
Summary
*I remain highly focused on the USD (see UUP chart)... which looks to be cooling into late June/early July. Once the USD floors... a few trade ideas I will consider will be long UUP, short Gold - via GLD, and even short the equity market.
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A morning of weak chop.. but we are clearly holding the lows.
notable strength: Ford (F) +1.4%.. although broader price structure looks ugly to the low $13s later this summer.
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time to cook
11.05am.. Transports -1.4%... but well above the recent lows.. from a pure cycle perspective... its due a new multi-week up wave.
US equities open lower, but there really isn't any downside power right now, and the sp'500 has a high opportunity to close moderately higher in the low 2100s. USD is cooling, -0.5% @ DXY 95.80s. Metals are battling to build early gains, Gold +$2. Oil opens lower by around -1%, but looks set to turn positive.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
So.. we're off and running...
I am well aware some are out there screaming for much lower levels in the immediate term (not least with Greece on the edge)... but price action sure doesn't support the notion that we'll be go any lower than sp'2085.
Equity bulls should be able to drag this market higher into the next FOMC.. if not 2-3 weeks beyond it... all the while.. as the USD cools to the DXY 92/90 zone.
Things are setting up rather nicely in the 'big picture'.
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notable weakness, airlines, DAL -2.9%, UAL -3.9%
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King O' is due to speak at the G7.... and it looks like clown finance TV will be giving him all the coverage he wants.
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Good morning. Futures are a touch lower, sp -2pts, we're set to open at 2090. USD is cooling, -0.2% in the DXY 96.10s.. there is viable downside to the 92/90 zone within 3-5 weeks. Metals are battling to bounce, Gold +$2, whilst Oil is -0.4%.
sp'60min
USD, daily2, outlook
Summary
*China, +2.2% @ 5131, another new multi-year high... pretty incredible.
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Overnight action was minor weak chop... certainly, new lows were not broken..
I expect last Friday's low of sp'2085 to hold, with new highs viable across the next few weeks.
Whether we max out at 2140s, 50s, or even higher... difficult to say.. we'll know nearer the time, and there will be other aspects to watch, most notably.. the USD.
re: USD. I am seeking renewed downside to secondary target zone of 92/90, sustained action <90 looks highly unlikely. A bigger move/trade will be from the low 90s to the 120s.... that will likely take until 2016 to fully play out.
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Weekend update from Walker, highly recommended...
Doomer chat, Hunter with Pollock
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Good wishes for the week ahead
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9.35am... VIX opens +5%.... in the 15s, but opening candle set to turn black-fail.... equity bears beware!
9.36am.. VIX black-fail candle.. with a spike top..... market wants to go UP
USD is -0.5%.... and that is going to help the metals/oil.. at least a little.
