Daily Index Cycle update

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +5pts @ 2130 (intra high 2134). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.6% and -0.1% respectively. Near term outlook remains bullish into the holiday weekend, and more broadly.. into the next FOMC of June 17th.


sp'daily5

Trans

Summary

*Despite seeing the biggest gains today, the Trans remains notably weak.. with first resistance around 8750. Best guess though... Trans to eventually break higher.. having churned largely sideways since last November.
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The broader market remains very strong, as reflected in a VIX that can not even break/hold the low teens.

For the moment, there is simply little reason to consider shorting the main indexes, not least that it seems pretty clear the Fed won't be raising rates until the FOMC of Sept'17th.

Most should be starting to consider that the market could simply grind higher across the summer... into early Sept'.

*to be clear though, higher rates are exceptionally bullish for the financials.. and that would also bode well for the broader market into 2016. 

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a little more later...

VIX - lowest daily close since Dec 2014

With equities holding moderate gains across much of the day, the VIX remained very subdued, settling -6.0% @ 12.11 - the lowest daily close since Dec'5th 2014. Near term outlook is for further equity gains, with the VIX set to remain within the 15/11 range into early June.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

VIX remains very low.. with the key 20 threshold out of range until at least mid June.

Obviously, the VIX won't keep falling, and a new multi-week up wave is well overdue. Right now though, VIX bulls look like they will have to be patient until mid June.

If sp'2160/80 zone at the time of the next FOMC, there is clearly going to be an opportunity for VIX to spike into the upper teens.
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more later.. on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +5pts @ 2131 (intra high 2134). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.6% and -0.1% respectively. Near term outlook remains bullish into the holiday weekend, and more broadly.. into the next FOMC of June 17th.


sp'60min

Summary

*key earnings due at the close: HPQ
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As expected, another closing hour in favour of the equity bulls... as bears get short-stopped out.

Tomorrow will be interesting, with CPI and the Yellen due to speak on the econ-outlook.

VIX breaking new lows in the late afternoon.. reflecting a market with no concerns ahead of the long weekend.
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4.10pm... HPQ. results... EPS was fine, but a miss on sales...   stock reacts with a jump of around 4%.

5min

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more later... on the VIX