12pm update - Transports sure looks ugly

Whilst the broader market remains in chop mode (ahead of the FOMC minutes), there is some distinct carnage in the Transports, -1.9% , so far hitting an intra low of 8508. The widening discrepancy between the 'old leader' and the broader market is something most should be carefully watching.


Trans, daily

Trans, weekly'2, rainbow

Summary

*we have a clear break of the broader upward trend, that stretches all the way back to late 2012.
--

So, what to make of this? The 'old leader' is not to be dismissed lightly. Although as some realise, whilst the Trans churned sideways across 2012, the broader market climbed.

notable weakness, airlines, DAL -6%, UAL -7%
--

VIX update from the Godfather



--
time to cook
-

12.21pm.. Someone is hitting the sell button TWTR, -2.0%... daily chart is largely flat lining though... likely dead money into Q2 earnings.

11am update - Transports battling to floor

Whilst the broader market is seeing minor chop, the Transports continues to struggle, with an early sig' decline of around -1.3% @ 8555. The smaller 15min cycle is offering the first sign of a turn... but still, it remains a very borderline situation, and the equity bulls should be at least moderately concerned.


Trans'15min

Trans'daily

Summary

*note the black-fail spike candle from last November.. marking a key high.
-

Despite many months.. it is notable that the equity bears have had to battle extremely hard just to keep the transports trading largely sideways.

Best guess... Trans to resume UPWARD.. with a key break over declining resistance, currently around 8775.
-

notable weakness, airlines, DAL -5%.. UAL -6%...
-

**Oil inventories saw a net decline of -2.7 million barrels... for now... it certainly favours another wave higher into the WTIC 65/67 zone.. and that certainly won't help the transports! 


11.35am.. Ohoh.. Trans -1.8%.... its starting to get real ugly   8517..... the 8400s would be a major problem

10am update - opening weakness

US equities slip moderately lower in early trading, but as usual, there just isn't any sig' downside power. USD is building gains for a third day, +0.2% in the DXY 95.40s. Metals are a touch higher, Gold +$1. Oil is holding gains of 1.2%, ahead of the EIA report at 10.30am


sp'60min

Trans, daily

Summary

*once again... Trans remains especially weak.... arguably, any move <8500 would be a major problem. Best guess... a break >8800... along with sp >2140s by end month.
-

A pretty quiet open... we should see some more dynamic action this afternoon with the FOMC minutes (2pm).

notable weakness, airlines, DAL/UAL, both lower by a very sig -4.5%

strength: YHOO +3% in the $42s... but looking very vulnerable
-
stay tuned


10.01am.. Trans -1.1%... 8580s.. this is getting pretty close to the border

Huge sell side vol' in the airlines...  UAL -5.2%.... getting ugly