Good morning. Futures are flat, we're set to open at sp'2127. The USD continues to rally, +0.2% in the DXY 95.40s. Metals are vainly bouncing, Gold +$1. Oil is similarly trying to rebound, +0.5%, ahead of the next EIA report.
sp'daily5
Summary
So we're set for a quiet open. Not much is due today... just oil inventory data and the FOMC minutes. By the afternoon, hourly equity cycle will be prone to swinging upward again.
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early mover: YHOO, +2.7% in the $42s.
Yesterdays chart highlights the closing hour carnage... as market became concerned about possible tax changes that might affect its Alibaba holding...
5min
A real train wreck of a stock... one I have never traded.. nor would. Although I will keep an eye on YHOO today, if only for entertainment purposes.
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Update from a returning Oscar
Not surprisingly, Mr C is looking for a holiday reversal, I suppose a brief drop of 1-2% is possible before another swing higher into mid June. In any case.. its minor noise, whilst the broader trend remains intact.
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Doomer chat, Hunter with Kirby
Some truly kooky chatter, as ever, make of that... what you will.
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With the USD rallying for a second consecutive day, +1.2% @ DXY 95.36, commodities were under some downward pressure. WTIC Oil settled -3.9% @ $57.99, Gold -$16, with Silver -3.0%. USD looks set to make a play for the 96s within the near term, but a key floor is not likely yet in.
USD, weekly
WTIC Oil, weekly'2
GLD, daily
Summary
To be clear, last week did not feel like a key floor/turn in the USD. My best guess is for renewed weakness after what will probably be a 1-2 week bounce. A key floor in the DXY 90/89s looks due.. before a hyper-ramp to the 120s.
As for Oil... it remains a tricky commodity to project an outlook, but if the USD makes a lower low in June/July, then WTIC has a fair chance of renewed strength to the mid/upper $60s. I do not expect sustained action in the $70s this year.
Finally.. the precious metals..which still look set to break new multi-year lows. Key support for Gold is $1130, which equates to GLD in the 109s. Broader target remains Gold $1000, with Silver 12/10.
*I remain short Gold - via GLD, am seeking an exit in the 113s before this weekend.
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Looking ahead
Wednesday will see the latest EIA oil report, but far more importantly.. the FOMC minutes (due 2pm). The algo-bots will no doubt be very prone to snapping the market one way or the other.
*Best guess... the broader upside continues into the sp'2140/50s before end month. By the FOMC of June 17th, the sp'500 could be trading in the 2170s.. which would also be an important hit of the upper bollinger on the giant monthly cycle.
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The hyper bullish scenario
Since the market broke and held the sp'1500s in summer 2013, I've been resigned to broad upside.. rather than the original deflationary target of sp'500/Dow 5K or so.
One of my Youtube subscriptions - Mr H, posted the following today. It is provoking, and will no doubt annoy many of the more resistant uber-doomers...
Dow 54k is indeed a viable scenario.. even across just a couple more years. Armstrong (whom most of you will know I often agree with), is similarly open to a hyper-bullish scenario of Dow 40K in 2017.
As ever, things can always change (not least if War or natural disaster), but with low/negative rates, continuing QE from central banks across the world, there really is only one place for most of the money to go... the global equity market.
*it was nice to hear from a few of you today, whether via Disque/email/messenger. Things can be a little quiet sometimes, as this crazy market has driven so many good people away.
US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -1pts @ 2127 (intra
high 2133). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.8% and -0.1% respectively.
Near term outlook remains bullish into the next FOMC of June 17th... at
which point the sp'2170s are viable.
sp'daily5
Dow
Trans
Summary
*notable new historic highs in the Dow (18351), and the sp'500 (2133).
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So, the broader market is still periodically breaking new historic highs. The laggard remains the Transports, which was especially notably today considering the significant net daily decline in WTIC Oil of -3.9% @ $57.99.
Best guess.. the Trans to break above declining resistance.. >8800, along with new Nasdaq making new historic highs >5132.
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