12pm update - equities holding gains

Unlike yesterday, US equities are comfortably holding moderate gains, with the sp'500 set to break above soft resistance of 2117 late today/early tomorrow. In either case.. new historic highs in the 2135/45 zone look due before month end. USD has turned a touch positive... helping to cool Oil and metals.


sp'60min

UUP, 60min

Summary

*the turn in USD/Euro is arguably pretty important, but it does NOT feel like a capitulation low.

Best guess.. a 1-2 week bounce.. before another wave lower to DXY 90/89s... and then the retrace from 100.71 will be complete.

If correct, that should at least cool the metals and Oil to some extent.
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VIX update from Mr T.



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time for lunch

11am update - USD flooring?

Whilst equities are holding moderate gains, sp +14pts @ 2113, there has been a potentially key opening reversal in the USD/Euro. Primary target zone were the DXY 93/92s.. and there is now high risk of at least a short term USD bounce. Metals are starting to cool from their earlier highs, Gold +$6.


UUP' 60min

FXE'60min

Summary

*I can't chart DXY intraday.. using UUP/FXE as valid alternatives
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UUP has an opening reversal, but perhaps more notable.. an opening black-fail candle for FXE.

This morning certainly doesn't feel like capitulation in currency land.. but at the very least.. there is threat of 1-2 weeks USD bounce.

If Mr Market really wants to wash out the max' number of USD bulls, it'll bounce for week or so.. then break a new low with a key floor in DXY 90/89s.

In any case... we're headed for 120s eventually.. and that will cause all sorts of 'issues'.
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notable strength: FB +2.6%.. with rather active trading.

Daily cycle looks set for a bullish MACD cross late today/tomorrow. A daily close above the 50dma of $81s would be very bullish for next week.. and probably into early June.
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11.04am.. Ohoh, Draghi is talking at the IMF.... cnbc europe is covering it.. no idea if USA version is.


11.08am.. USD turns positive for the day, from -0.4% earlier. Hmmm


11.34am.. the momo chasers are out in force today, FB +3.0%.. AAPL +1.8%.. it all bodes well for the bulls into tomorrow's OPEX.

VIX -5% in the low 13s... reflecting a market that has ZERO concern about anything.

10am update - opening gains

US equities open moderately higher, with the sp' breaking the Weds' high of 2110. With the USD -0.2% in the DXY 93.30s, the metals keep on climbing, Gold +$7. Oil is battling to hold gains of 0.9%.


sp'60min

GLD, daily

Summary

*Metals are really causing some problems for those short (including yours truly). Clearly, the weak USD remains the primary cause. Once USD floors... metals should reverse hard.
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As the rains pour across London city this afternoon, in market land, its now a simple of case of either a break >2117... or... failing once more.

Best guess... further upside, with a short-stop cascade beginning in the 2116/18 zone... that will  offer a weekly close in the 2120s.
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notable strength: AAPL, +1.1%... leading the way back upward..

weakness, JCP -4.7%... post earnings depression.
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10.02am... Transports sure ain't part of the party... u/c.   R2K is only +0.1%.

So... it remains a case of continued weakness in the two leaders... but new highs (due) in rest of the market.
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10.07am.. Something is going on in FB, +1.4%...  a lot of trades flying through right now. Daily chart is set for a bullish MACD cross tomorrow...bodes well for the broader market into the Friday close.
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Opening black-fail candle in currency land... for the Euro... with a reversal in the USD.

*Gold sure is trading closely with Euro/$ right now..