11am update - holding moderate gains

US equities are holding moderate gains, with a viable minor down wave into the early afternoon. The bigger weekly cycle is now offering the sp'2140s in the immediate term. Metals are holding gains, Gold +$12, with Silver +2.8%. Oil continues to cool, -1.3% in the $58s.


sp'60min

Summary

Anyone still think a move under 2072 is viable in the near term? It sure looks unlikely.

Despite the continued chatter about Greek payments due, the market doesn't care... and is looking reasonably strong this morning.

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notable weakness: BABA -0.8% in the $80.50s. A loss of $80 would bode badly for those holding long into Thursday earnings. Relative to the main market.. BABA is performing poorly since late Friday.

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I have my eyes on the Euro and Oil as viable longs.. but not today.. or at these levels.

FXE 60min

A retrace to the mid 108s looks highly probable. My only concern in terms of going long would be an extra washout to the secondary zone in the low 107s. In any case... FXE looks okay for 115/120s in the mid term.
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10am update - opening gains

US equities open moderately higher, with the sp +11pts @ 2119. VIX is naturally subdued, already hitting a low of 12.10. Metals are battling to hold early gains, Gold +$10. Oil is moderately weak, -0.9%


sp'60min

Summary

*Factory orders: 2.1%... a touch above expected
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Its not looking good for those in bear land... although clearly, until we're above sp'2125...  the near term outlook is not 100% definitive.
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notable weakness: BABA -0.8%....

A failure to hold the $80 threshold would bode VERY bad for earnings,due this Thursday morning.
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*Fed official Evans speaks this lunch time... and Mr Market will be listening for any chatter on int' rates. 

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +6pts, we're set to open at 2114. Metals are a little higher, Gold +$3, with Silver +1.0%. With the USD continuing a minor retrace/bounce, +0.2%, Oil is fractionally higher by 0.1%.


sp'60min

sp'dailly5
 

Summary

*awaiting Factory orders data (10am).
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So... the week is set to begin with some gains... as the broader trend remains bullish (if weakening on the monthly MACD cycle).

Equity bulls should be looking for a daily close >sp'2115 today or tomorrow... that will be enough to clarify new highs are due.

On no basis does a break under the 200dma look viable... and the recent low of 2072 should hold... even if the market unravels later this week.
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notable early strength: TWTR +1.4%, but still only in the $38s... and vulnerable to testing the Dec' low of $34s. I sure won't be getting involved in that momo nonsense for some weeks to come.

weakness: MGM -2.9%... related to the post Maypac defeat?

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Update from a typically loud Oscar



I certainly agree with Oscar on the precious metals. Overall price structure remains a very bearish H/S formation, and if Gold loses the Nov' low of $1130, there is open air down to the $1000 threshold this summer.

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Good wishes for the week ahead!