12pm update - turning positive

Equity indexes have already started to turn positive, with spike-floor candles for most indexes, having swung from sp'2094 to 2113. The weaker USD is going to continue to help equities across May.. if not also June. Metals are holding gains, Gold +$11. Oil is battling to stay positive, +0.3%.


sp'60min

R2K, daily

Summary

*R2K is a bit of a mixed picture.. having broken the rising trend from October.. but the daily candle is now a pretty bullish spike-floor.
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Overall... the morning down wave (part of the blame is currently the Gulf ship story) appears nothing less than just a tease to the bears.

New highs look due.. esp' in tech... which still looks set to take out the 5132 bubble high. From there.. things become clearer.

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VIX update from Mr T. 


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time for lunch

11am update - USD continues to fall

Whilst equities have seen some moderate morning declines, there has been notable weakness in the USD, -0.6% in the DXY 96.20s. The break of trend should now be apparent to everyone, and it has important implications for both equities and commodities into the early summer.


UUP, weekly

Summary

Weakness in the USD is notably helping the precious metals - Gold +$10, with Oil +0.8%

*there was a spurious story of the Iranians seizing a US ship.. but that seems to be completely false. Oil has cooled a little from a brief spike high in the upper $57s. The big $60 threshold remains due... with the API/EIA reports due late today/early tomorrow.

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notable weakness, AAPL.

A rather stark bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart. It will be difficult to see that flip to a bullish one.. by the close of today.

Maybe AAPL should have posted a net loss like AMZN, or just a 50% miss like NFLX? This remains a TWISTED and sick market where things can be deeply mis-priced.. both to the up.. and downside.
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stay tuned!
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11.27am... Rather significant spike-floor candles on the two market leaders..  Trans/R2K.. both are suggestive this wave from sp'2125 to 2094 was just another minor washout.

A net daily gain now looks probable.  If AAPL can turn positive.. that'll really solidfy the turn.

10am update - opening chop

US equities open moderately mixed, with a touch of weakness. A latter day recovery looks probable. USD is notably weak, -0.4% @ DXY 96.30s.. well on the way to first target of 93/92s. Metals are building minor gains, Gold +$4. Oils is +0.4%


sp'60min

Summary

So, opening chop... and as usual, it remains a case of no sig' downside power. This market is still broadly climbing.

Ironically, the fact the mainstream don't even get it, makes things even more bullish. The same situation is the case in the perception for China.. and most of the EU markets.

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Whilst AMZN is the most mis-priced stock on the upside... one of the most under-valued (relative to main market) is AAPL.

Despite excellent results, the stock have lost early gains, and is now on the slide... on heavy volume.

First support is the $128/27s.. where the 50dma is lurking.
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10.02am... Consumer confidence.. 95 vs 103 previous.... pretty disappointing.

Richmond Fed... -3 for April... another depressing number...

.. but hey... bad news is now good news... right? After all, all that matters to the market is for no rate hikes this summer.
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10.07am... A rather huge bearish engulfing candle for AAPL, after breaking a new historic high of $135.75 at the open.

I realise some of the bears will be getting excited about such an opening reversal... but really... would you seriously want to short such a company? To me.. it is nothing less than the height of crazy.
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Notable strength, energy stocks, RIG/SDRL, both higher by around 2%... as Oil starts to build gains, +1.1%
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10.12am... R2K has broken the rising trend that stretches back to October.  -0.6%.. and looking vulnerable right now.

Well, now its a case of 'floor at 11am... and see what the bulls can do into the early afternoon'.
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10.14am... Pretty surprising things going on in this first hour...

USD now -0.7%.... and its not helping prop up equities. Oil/metals though are benefiting...
Gold +$10... Oil +1.4%
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10.33am.. Buyers starting to appear... back above sp'2100, VIX already starting to cool... losing the 14s.