12pm update - still clawing upward

US equities are holding minor gains.. and look set for the sp'2070s before the close. Price structure is a rather clear baby bull flag on the smaller 15min cycle. Gold remains weak, -$4. Oil remains significantly lower, -2.7%... hovering around the key $50 threshold.


sp'15min

sp'60min

Summary

Little to add.

Market looks set to claw upward... and as a fair few are aware of... the Yellen is set to speak at 3.45pm at a west coast Fed conf.

Whether the market will see some of the rats selling into the weekend... difficult to say.

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VIX update from Mr T.



*that is a pretty sig' VIX call purchase... yesterday afternoon.
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time for lunch

11am update - battling upward

After a minor snap from sp'2061 to 2052, equities are resuming upward. Price structure though is very likely a large bear flag.. which should max out somewhere in the 2070/80 zone.. late today. Metals remain weak, Gold -$3, with Oil -2.8%... losing over half of the Thursday 'war gains'.


sp'15min

sp'60min

Summary

Little to add.

It looks like we'll claw upward into at least 2pm... which will no doubt annoy those bears still holding short from 2045 yesterday morning.

Best guess remains... renewed downside.. probably to the 200dma of sp'2010 by next Tue/Wed.
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Notable weakness: oil/gas drillers, RIG/SDRL, both lower by around -4%

10am update - powerless bears

Equities open slightly mixed, and it would appear the bears are powerless. A break back over sp'2060 will open up 2075/80 by the close. Price structure is still a reasonable bear flag, and there remains threat of renewed downside under the key 2039 low.. but seemingly... not today.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*VIX opens with one of those kooky downside spikes.. but much like we saw on March'18th (FOMC day)... and that sure didn't bode well for the equity bears by the late afternoon.
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So... its looking like we'll battle slowly higher into the afternoon.

Clearly though, we'll still see a sig' net weekly decline across all indexes, which bodes somewhat bearish for early next week.
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notable weakness: coal miners, BTU -5.4%
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10.16am.. a minor snap from sp'2061 to 2053... but really... this still doesn't look great for the bears.

Price structure on the micro 5/15min cycles is a bull flag... 


10.22am... see...

Somewhere in the 2070/80 zone