Whilst there was further renewed weakness in the equity market, there was strong upside for Oil prices. WTIC settled higher by $2.46 (5.0%) @ $51.43. If $41.24 was a key short term low, then first retrace upside is the $60/67 zone. The underlying issue of over-supply though.. remains entirely unaddressed.
WTIC, weekly
WTIC, monthly
Summary
First things... first.
The issue - at least to me, remains one of over-supply. Yes... short term 'war gains' could continue for weeks.. even a few months, but until the valves at individual oil wells are physically turned OFF... the inventories will continue to build.
At some point this late spring/summer, storage will be maxed out.. and then it will be a fire sale.
Right now I'd actually be looking to short oil... somewhere in the 60/75 zone, esp' once we're into June/July.
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As for equities...
sp'weekly7
The sp'500 is close to breaking the rising trend from the Oct' low. If the March'11th low of 2039 low fails to hold - as I believe it will, then next key support is the 200dma around 2010. If that fails... then a test of the giant 2k threshold. Ultimate 'best case' for the doomer bears would be sp'1960/40 zone... but for now... that remains a mere hope.
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Looking ahead
Friday with see the final revision for Q4 GDP, corp' profits, and consumer sentiment.
*it is notable that the Yellen will be speaking at 3.45pm tomorrow... at a San' fran' fed conference.
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Mrs Brown says that in London...
...everyone is different, but that means.. anyone can fit it in. I think she must be right, because although I don't look like anyone else, I really do feel at home. I will never be like other people, but thats alright.... because I'm a bear. A bear called... Paddington.
Goodnight from London
