12pm update - quietly waiting

US equities remain moderately weak, but price action is reflecting a market that is essentially in a holding pattern ahead of the 2pm FOMC announcement. Metals are holding minor gains, Gold +$2.. but vulnerable to a severe afternoon snap lower. Oil remains broadly weak after another huge surplus, -1.6%.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

The key threshold is clearly around sp'2060... any move under that.. and it bodes badly... otherwise... there remains threat of renewed upside on more crazy 'fedspeak'.

I see too many individual stockcharts too convince me we are more likely to rally (beyond today).. than decline.

Best guess.. a brief spike higher after 2pm... but one that will be extremely vulnerable to reversing.

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VIX update from Mr T


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time for lunch....  back at 1pm  :)

11am update - Oil oil everywhere

The latest EIA report offered another weekly surplus of 9.6 million barrels of WTIC Oil. Storage is (not surprisingly) finite... the low $30s look due this spring. Meanwhile.. equities are in minor chop mode... comfortably holding the 50dma.. but that looks vulnerable near the close.


sp'60min

USO, daily

Summary

So.. another massive weekly surplus of Oil. Its amusing how most remain in denial at the finite storage issue. Sure.. they could even transport some to Canada... but at 7-9 million a week... Mr Market has yet to properly adjust.
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Notable weakness: DISCA (Discovery), -2.1%.. and starting to look real ugly on the monthly cycle - viable downside to 25/20 into the summer. I like the company.. but not at this time.... and certainly not at $31.
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time to cook.... I think

10am update - crazy VIX opex

The Wed' opening print for VIX opex was -6% in the 14.60s... but with an even crazier spike low of 13.69. That likely marks a key turn/floor. Meanwhile.. equities remain moderately weak... the 50dma of sp'2060 will likely hold until after the FOMC announcement. Oil remains (not surprisingly) very weak, -2.0%


VIX'60min

sp'60min

Summary

*to be clear... I don't expect sustained action in the sp'2050s this morning.. or indeed until late afternoon.
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We have a VERY long.. and busy day ahead! I hope most of you out there have popcorn on standby

Notable weakness: ADBE -5.5%, post earnings depression..  subscription numbers missed.
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Eyes to the EIA oil report.. due 10.30am...


10.31am.. 9.6million surplus... that is ugly ugly ugly number!

After initial crazy action... Oil is resuming lower  -2.1%

We're now averaging 7-9 million barrels weekly surplus so far this year.... at this rate... storage will be maxed out within a month or two.

WTIC Oil is set to lose $40.... target 35/30......... no doubt. .talk of the 20s will start to re-appear in the mainstream.