VIX in cooling mode

Whilst equities saw rather significant gains build across the day, the VIX was naturally in cooling mode, settling -2.4% @ 15.61 (intra low 15.36). Near term outlook is back to bullish for US equities, with risk of VIX continuing to cool to the mid/low 14s.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

All things considered, the VIX held up pretty well today. Yet.. part of that reason is no doubt because of the looming FOMC announcement this Wednesday afternoon.

*VIX opex is at the Wed' open.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed significantly higher, sp +27pts @ 2081. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.7% and 0.6% respectively. With a daily close above the 10dma of 2074, near term outlook is bullish. Metals settled a touch weak, Gold -$1. Oil -2.6% in the $43s.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour, bears ground out... with a clear move above the 50% fib retrace (from 2119)... and the daily 10MA of sp'2074
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So, a bullish start to the weak.... but price action/structure looks much like last Thursday. Another failure at these levels for the bulls would open the door to a rather swift decline to the 200dma.. which is currently all the way down @ 2004.

In favour of the bulls...

Daily close above 10MA of 2074
Price structure is bullish F flag.. bodes for Tue/Wed gains into the 2090/2100s.


Bears...

VIX held up 'relatively' well today -3% in the mid 15s.
Oil remains weak
USD was sig' lower by -0.7%..  which would account for at least some of the equity gains.


Overall, unless Yellen says something really stupid (not least about interest rates),spooking the market this Wednesday... bulls are back in control. 

Unless bears can break under sp'2060 by the Tuesday close - with a F flag failure (like last Friday morning)... there is little hope for those already short.
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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - an important closing hour

US equities continue to claw upward.. with a new intra high of sp'2079 - a full 50% fib' retrace of the wave from the historic high of 2119. Equity bears are on the edge here... with VIX cooling -2.6% in the 15.60s. Metals remain weak, Gold -$2. Oil remains broadly weak, -2.6%.


sp'daily3 - fib levels

sp'60min

Summary

We have a pretty important closing hour.

Equity bears arguably need a daily close back under the daily 10MA of 2074/73..  considering the current price action... that won't be easy.
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Notable weakness, INTC -0.4%... which is pretty lousy, considering the current market gains.
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3.04pm.. short stop cascade underway.... sp'2080.... next level is the Mar'9 high of 2083.

Interestingly.. VIX remains relatively unmoved in the 15.50s.
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3.15pm.. Equity bears need a daily close <2075 to break the bull flag...  however, across Tuesday morning, any sustained trading <2080 will do it.

VIX attempting to floor.. -2.4% @ 15.62...


3.41pm.. minor chop.. stuck at upper end of resistance @ 2080....

A daily close under the 10dma of 2074 looks highly improbable.. and that does bode in favour of the bulls for rest of the week.

... back at the close