11am update - Oil remains a problem

Despite equities breaking into the sp'2070s, there remain a number of rather huge bearish issues in the immediate term, not least of which are weakening Oil prices. WTIC is around 4% lower, in the low $43s. Metals have already turned red, Gold -$2.


sp'60min

USO, weekly'2

Summary

*weekly 'rainbow' candles are now decisively red... we're surely headed for sub $40 WTIC in the immediate term.
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Suffice to say... lower oil prices are causing real problems in energy stocks.

Sooner or later this week... the main market is going to be dragged down too.
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Notable weakness: NFLX -3.4%.. on a down grade.
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11.12am... Price structure on the hourly equity cycle is a clear bullish F flag... the issue now is... whether that will also fail and break lower.. as we saw early Friday morning.

10am update - opening gains

US equities start the week on a positive note, with the sp'500 battling to break into the 2070s. A daily close above the 10MA of 2072 would bode for a straight up run to new historic highs... otherwise.. this is just the expected bounce. Oil remains weak, -2.5% in the $43s.


sp'daily5b

Summary

To be clear.... the daily 10MA in my view marks the boundary.

If we see a daily close above the 10MA... which will be 2070/68 by tomorrow/Wednesday, then a break <2039 will be off the menu.

As it is... I'm guessing we get stuck today... trundle sideways tomorrow... and then reverse on FOMC day.
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Notable weakness: Oil/gas drillers, RIG -1.6%, SDRL -5.3%

.. see the weekend fair value post for broader perspective, on what remains an utterly destroyed sector.

10.14am.. sp'2072... approaching gap zone... we should get stuck soon... and cool for rest of the day.

Oil remains exceptionally weak, -3.2%.... and that sure isn't helping energy stocks. Conversely, airlines are climbing.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +6pts, we're set to open at 2059. Metals are bouncing, Gold +$3. Oil remains weak, -1.6%... having fractionally broken a new cycle low of $43.57.


sp'60min

sp'daily5b

Summary

So, we're set to open a little higher, a net daily gain looks pretty likely.

Broadly... market looks set for chop .. with 'moderate upside' to the 2070s by the FOMC of Wednesday afternoon. From there... I'm guessing we'll see a rollover into the Wed' close... and then at least down to sp'2k before end month.

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Update from a typically loud Oscar



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Doomer chat - Hunter with Ms. Prins.



As ever... make of that... what you will.
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Good wishes for the week ahead!