2pm update - the daily close will be key

US equities are holding significant gains, with two hours left of the trading day. How the market closes will be pretty important... a daily close >sp'2075 would bode in favour of the bulls... otherwise... market is poised for another failure. Despite the equity gains, VIX is comfortably holding the mid teens.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

*typical turn time is of course 2.30pm... if the bears are going to show up today... that would be the time.
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So... two hours left.... a daily close back under the 10dma (currently 2073) is kinda important.
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Notable weakness: AA -2.5%.... Alcoa looks a broken stock... bigger picture downside to 10/9 looks a given into the summer
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2.26pm... well.... sp'2077.... 4pts.. (0.2%) above the daily 10MA.... bears need to show up in the remainder of today.. or it bodes for a straight up more to new historic highs.

*watching Liesman on clown finance TV talking about patience... but more on that in the closing hour.

1pm update - another bull flag failure looks due

Equities are holding around key resistance of sp'2075. Price structure is a rather clear bullish F flag.. much like Thursday. The issue now is whether the market fails to keep on pushing higher... or slips back into the 2060s. VIX is holding the 15s... offering the 20s.. if renewed weakness to sp'2k.


sp'60min

GLD, daily

Summary

*metals remain (not surprisingly) weak, with a baby bear flag on the daily chart. A major drop seems due this week... breaking the Nov' low of $1130.
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Little to add.

Market looks set to remains stuck.. if not rollover into the close.
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Notable weakness: NFLX -4.5% on a downgrade

12pm update - equities at resistance

US equities are holding gains across all indexes... but are now at key resistance. A daily close above sp'2076 would bode for a straight up move into April.. otherwise.. another rollover is due. VIX is naturally cooling, -3% in the 15.50s. Oil remains weak, -3.8%.. having broken a new cycle low of $42.85.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

More than anything right now... a daily close above.. or below the 10MA.. that IS the issue.. at least in my view.

Best guess... bulls fail.. with a Monday close under the 10MA (currently @ sp'2073).
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VIX update from Mr T.


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time for tea :)