12pm update - chop chop

Equities are in minor chop mode... ahead of what will probably be a move into the sp'2070/80s. as early as the Friday close. VIX remains similarly stuck.. although did fractionally break above the Tuesday high. Metals remain weak, Gold -$7, with Silver having broken a new multi-year low.


sp'60min

GLD, daily

Summary

*metals remain within a starkly bearish down trend... the strong dollar is not helping.
--

So... minor gains... but a daily close in the 2050s remains very much within range.
-

VIX update from Mr T.



--
time for tea... back at 1pm

11am update - renewed weakness

The opening gains fail to hold, and most indexes are breaking new cycle lows, with the sp' @ 2040. VIX remains hovering around the Tuesday high.. a failure to break/close in the 17s would bode well for the bulls. Metals remain very weak, Gold -$8, with Silver -2.0%. Oil remains weak, -2.4%


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

*Oil inventories came in much lower than last week at 4 million barrels, but its not enough to inspire the oil traders. Further, the USD strength is a constant downward pressure... as it is for the precious metals.
--

Price action is much stronger than yesterday (not least with stocks like INTC +3.6%),  we appear to be seeing just a minor washout wave.

Equity bulls merely need to retake the 2050s... opening up a break of the down trend for tomorrow.
-

Notable weakness: oil/gas drillers, SDRL -2.6%
-

It is typical turn time of course... so.. lets see if the bull maniacs can push this back into the 2050/55 zone by 2pm... I'm guessing they will.


11.15am.. VIX turns red... with sp'2046....

Metals continue to unravel... Gold -$12.... Silver breaks a new multi-year low.

10am update - mixed open

US equities open with some mixed chop, but equity bulls look set to see a bullish MACD cross before the end of today. A break of the down trend looks highly probable by midday Thursday. Metals are weak, Gold -$5... on its way to breaking a new multi-year low (<$1130).


sp'60min

GLD, weekly'3

Summary

*the strong dollar sure isn't helping the metals. The above 'best guess' wave count for Gold looks on track. I'm broadly in agreement with Armstrong (although he doesn't do any wave count nonsense). If I'm right about a sub'3... then we should just keep falling into late spring.
--

So... its not the most exciting of opens..., but still... a turn/floor building day would be pretty natural.

For the wave counters out there.... we do have a rather clear 5 waves lower, and in theory... we should battle upward from here... at least into the Friday close. Indeed, a weekly close in the 2070//80s looks very viable.
-

Notable strength: INTC +2.7%... on its way to the $40s.... just a case of how long it takes.... not if.


10.31am.. Oil inventories.. surplus of around 4 million barrels...        not great.... but somewhat better.

Oil still -1.6% on the day.
-

10.36am.. Fractional new index low sp'2043... Hmmm....  as ever..  VIX remains subdued... still stuck in the mid 16s.

INTC powering upward.... +3.7%....