Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are sharply lower, sp -20pts, we're set to open at a new cycle low of 2059. Metals are seeing a minor bounce, Gold +$2. Oil is weak, -0.7%.


sp'daily5

Summary

Hello! Well. I was looking for a negative open. but not of this degree. Things are getting somewhat interesting. However... it is important not to get lost in any bearish hysteria.. right?

Why the decline? Rising USD is not helping... almost near the 100 level.

Target was the sp'2065/60 zone, and we're likely to undercut that at the open. Typically, we'll floor around 11am... so... a washout until then seems likely.

Bears should be VERY mindful of an opening black-fail hourly candle on the VIX... especially one in the 16.50/17.00 zone. Right now, the 18s look out of range.
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Notable weakness: oil/gas drillers, RIG -2%, SDRL -3%.... energy names remain in real trouble.

INTC, -1.7%... particularly weak of late, but still.... unquestionably one of the finest tech stocks.


9am  sp-18pts... so that is 2061... where the 50dma is.

*Cramer set to open the market.... clearly... the end of times has begun.


9.13am sp -15pts... 2064.... there is clearly some support at current levels.

Eyes to the VIX... at the open.


9.32am... Cramer rings... and the market sinks....    50dma being tested.


9.34am.. BLACK-fail candle on the hourly VIX.....  bears.............. beware!


9.38am... VIX black candle holding.. despite equities @ 2060.

Bears have a real problem here... from a cyclical/wave perspective.


9.42am.. Reversal candles starting to appear.....  such as SPXL (3x long sp'500)


9.44am.. Black-fail candle STILL on the VIX.. just below key resistance.  VIX is likely maxed out.. on this multi-day cycle.


9.48am.. VIX candle turns marginally bullish.. but still.... it looks vulnerable... not least via the equity 5 wave count... which remains pretty clear.


9.50am.. 5min cycles are offering a turn from sp'2058.....

.. another micro wave lower... 2056.... Hmmm    VIX still holding below gap resistance.


9.59am.. VIX is going to settle the opening 30mins with a classic BLACK-fail candle....

Down cycle from 2119 is surely complete..... its 'build a floor time' for Mr Market...

Just another day in market land

US equities managed to hold moderate gains into the Monday close, but another minor wave lower looks due across Tue/Wed... to the sp'2065/60 zone. From there... renewed upside into end month... and probably across April to the 2125/75 zone.


sp'weekly7

Summary

*the second consecutive blue candle... and I'm guessing we'll floor somewhere in the low sp'2060s by midweek.
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Frankly... a pretty tiresome day. A bounce is all that today was.. much like last Wed/Thursday.

Tuesday may well open a little higher.. but we'll surely close red.. the only issue is whether it'll take until Wed' to hit the target zone of sp'2065/60 - where there are multiple aspects of support.
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Looking ahead

The only data of note is Wholesale trade, but.. most don't give much significance to that these days.
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Chatter from Gordon T Long with Charles Hugh Smith



For those with an interest in the bigger economic picture - along with related societal implications, its pretty informative.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities settled moderately higher, sp +8pts @ 2079. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.2% and 0.5% respectively. Near term outlook offers high probability of one further wave lower to the 50dma in the low sp'2060s. From there.. the broader upward trend will likely resume.


sp'daily5

Dow

Summary

Little to add.

Market looks set for another minor wave lower... before resuming the broader upward trend.
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Closing update from Riley


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a little more later..