Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +7pts, we're set to open at 2105. Metals are bouncing, Gold +$4, but is highly vulnerable to yet another morning reversal. Oil is fractionally lower, -0.1%.


sp'60min

Summary

*ECB press conf. with Draghi due around 8.45am.... that will last around an hour, and will definitely impact early trading.

We already have an ECB announcement that rates will be left unchanged... no surprise there.
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So.... early gains, but market looks highly vulnerable to an opening reversal. Be on the watch for black-fail candles in the opening 30minutes.

Primary downside target remains sp'2065, along with VIX 17s.
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Update from Oscar



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Good wishes for Thursday trading.

King Dollar continues to strengthen

With the ECB QE-pomo train set to arrive in the EU, the Euro remains under serious pressure. The US Dollar continues its very powerful climb from last summer. The giant 100 DXY threshold looks a given.. .the only issue is whether the Jan'2002 high in the 120s will be hit this year... or not until 2016.


USD, monthly

USD, monthly'2, rainbow

Summary

*I'm tired.. .so... will be brief...
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Despite the endless 'dollar doomers' - not least Schiff (whom I still support on some other issues), or the various 'omg.. hyperinflation is imminent' callers... the USD continues to strengthen.

As I sometimes ask my American friends... '... you'd not rather hold Euros or Yen... right?'.
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Looking ahead

Thursday will see the usual weekly jobs, productivity/cost, and factory orders.

There is an ECB meeting, but that will mostly be about re-stating the imminent QE-pomo program.. along with ZIRP/NIRP policy.

*fed official Williams is due to speak on the econ-outlook in Hawaii.... (good work if you can get it)
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed moderately weak, sp -9pts @ 2098 (intra low 2087). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.4% and -0.3% respectively. Near term outlook offers the sp'2060s, along with VIX 17s. Broader trend remains powerfully bullish, and the sp'2200s remain a valid target for early summer.


sp'daily5

Dow

Summary

Little to add.

Market appears in a minor cooling phase, having seen a 7% ramp since early February.

Primary downside target remains sp'2065... which would likely equate to VIX in the 17s.
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Closing update from Riley


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a little more later...