Wednesday, 4 March 2015

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, sp -7pts, we're set to open at 2100. Metals are a touch higher, Gold +$1. Oil is higher ahead of the latest EIA report, +1.3%.


sp'daily3 - fib retrace


Summary

*ADP jobs: 212k gains, broadly inline with market expectations.
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So.... we're set to open a little lower. It will be important for the equity bears to break the market into the 2080s today.. along with VIX in the mid/upper 15s.

Primary downside target remains sp'2065, which should equate to VIX in the 17s.

Notable early weakness, oil/gas drillers, RIG/SDRL, both lower by -1.5%

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Hunter with doomer Kirby



Quite frankly, I think Kirby is wrong about just about everything. As ever... come to you own conclusions.

Good wishes for Wednesday trading.

Has Oil floored?

Whilst the US equity market appears to have begun a minor retrace to the sp'2060s, there remains the bigger issue of whether Oil has already put in a key floor ($43.58). For the Oil bears... the longer they take to renew the downward trend... the harder it will be to break into the $30s.


WTIC Oil, monthly'2, rainbow


Summary

*its late.. and I'm tired... so this will be brief.
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Suffice to say.. with Oil trading in an increasingly stable manner.. we have the first sign of a turn on the giant monthly cycle... via a blue candle.

As ever.. how we close the month is what matters. If we do close March with a blue candle (green, certainly is not viable)... it would offer initial confirmation that $43 was a key multi-year floor.

If that is the case... it has big implications for ALL energy sector stocks.. not least the Oil/gas drillers - notably.. RIG, SDRL, and DO, all of which have considerable upside potential across the next few years.
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Looking ahead

Wednesday has a great deal going on...

ADP jobs, PMI/ISM service sector data, EIA Oil report. Fed Beige book (2pm)

*there are no less than 3 fed officials on the loose, and Mr Market will be listening for any talk of interest rates.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equity indexes closed moderately lower, sp -9pts @ 2107. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.5% and -0.6% respectively. Near term outlook offers a minor retrace to the sp'2060s, which will likely equate to VIX 17s. Broader outlook remains powerfully bullish.


sp'daily5


Dow


Summary

Little to add.


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Closing update from Riley


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a little more later...