Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, sp -7pts, we're set to open at 2100. Metals are a touch higher, Gold +$1. Oil is higher ahead of the latest EIA report, +1.3%.
sp'daily3 - fib retrace
Summary
*ADP jobs: 212k gains, broadly inline with market expectations.
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So.... we're set to open a little lower. It will be important for the equity bears to break the market into the 2080s today.. along with VIX in the mid/upper 15s.
Primary downside target remains sp'2065, which should equate to VIX in the 17s.
Notable early weakness, oil/gas drillers, RIG/SDRL, both lower by -1.5%
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Hunter with doomer Kirby
Quite frankly, I think Kirby is wrong about just about everything. As ever... come to you own conclusions.
Good wishes for Wednesday trading.
Wednesday, 4 March 2015
Has Oil floored?
Whilst the US equity market appears to have begun a minor retrace to the sp'2060s, there remains the bigger issue of whether Oil has already put in a key floor ($43.58). For the Oil bears... the longer they take to renew the downward trend... the harder it will be to break into the $30s.
WTIC Oil, monthly'2, rainbow
Summary
*its late.. and I'm tired... so this will be brief.
-
Suffice to say.. with Oil trading in an increasingly stable manner.. we have the first sign of a turn on the giant monthly cycle... via a blue candle.
As ever.. how we close the month is what matters. If we do close March with a blue candle (green, certainly is not viable)... it would offer initial confirmation that $43 was a key multi-year floor.
If that is the case... it has big implications for ALL energy sector stocks.. not least the Oil/gas drillers - notably.. RIG, SDRL, and DO, all of which have considerable upside potential across the next few years.
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Looking ahead
Wednesday has a great deal going on...
ADP jobs, PMI/ISM service sector data, EIA Oil report. Fed Beige book (2pm)
*there are no less than 3 fed officials on the loose, and Mr Market will be listening for any talk of interest rates.
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Goodnight from London
WTIC Oil, monthly'2, rainbow
Summary
*its late.. and I'm tired... so this will be brief.
-
Suffice to say.. with Oil trading in an increasingly stable manner.. we have the first sign of a turn on the giant monthly cycle... via a blue candle.
As ever.. how we close the month is what matters. If we do close March with a blue candle (green, certainly is not viable)... it would offer initial confirmation that $43 was a key multi-year floor.
If that is the case... it has big implications for ALL energy sector stocks.. not least the Oil/gas drillers - notably.. RIG, SDRL, and DO, all of which have considerable upside potential across the next few years.
--
Looking ahead
Wednesday has a great deal going on...
ADP jobs, PMI/ISM service sector data, EIA Oil report. Fed Beige book (2pm)
*there are no less than 3 fed officials on the loose, and Mr Market will be listening for any talk of interest rates.
--
Goodnight from London
Daily Index Cycle update
US equity indexes closed moderately lower, sp -9pts @ 2107. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.5% and -0.6% respectively. Near term outlook offers a minor retrace to the sp'2060s, which will likely equate to VIX 17s. Broader outlook remains powerfully bullish.
sp'daily5
Dow
Summary
Little to add.
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Closing update from Riley
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a little more later...
sp'daily5
Dow
Summary
Little to add.
--
Closing update from Riley
--
a little more later...
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