Equities have turned a little higher, with a new historic high of sp'2113. VIX has broken a new cycle low of 13.87. Metals remain weak, Gold -2. Oil is building gains, +1.5%.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
... and I return from land of sleep, which is what happens when you try to live on GMT and EST at the same time.
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So... we've another new cycle high... if marginal. Its only 11am... and Yellen could well be talking for another full 2 hours.
Good morning. Futures are a touch lower, sp -1pt, we're set to open at 2108. Metals are weak, Gold -$2. Oil is moderately higher, +0.4%. The Yellen is due to address the US senate this morning at 10am... and Mr Market will most certainly be listening!
sp'daily3 - fib retrace
Summary
*It remains highly uncertain if 2110 is a short term high... if so though.... a retrace to the 50dma remains the natural downside target, but clearly.. that is not going to happen this week.
Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) is ticking over on the daily cycle.. and does offer moderate hope to the bears of equity market weakness into next week.
As for this morning... if Yellen starts talking a little too much of possible interest rate rises this summer (or whenever)... it'll be very fair excuse for the market to sell lower.
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Notable early strength: HD +3.5% @ $116s, on rather superb results
US equities closed moderately lower, sp -0.7pts @ 2109. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.1% and u/c respectively. Near term outlook offers a 5-7 day down cycle to the sp'2060/40 zone, which might (briefly) equate to VIX 19/20s.
sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
Frankly... little to add, on what was another pretty tedious day.
Price action does offer the equity bears some hope that 2110 was a short term high... with a 2-3% down wave into next week.
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Closing update from Riley
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Looking ahead
Tuesday will see Case Schiller HPI, Richmond Fed, and consumer conf'.
*Yellen will be speaking to the US Senate, which might take until 1pm to complete. Any talk of interest rate rises by the summer will give the market the excuse to sell lower.
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