12pm update - minor chop

US equities continue to see minor chop.... with Mr Market awaiting some initial comments from the EU meeting that has just begun. Metals remain weak, Gold -$10, whilst Oil is clawing back upward from early lows, -2.6%


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

Suffice to say.. we're now in a holding pattern... awaiting the first news reports... but that could be some hours away. Indeed, the real reaction might not be until tomorrow.

*In any case, considering the hourly cycles... I've picked up a speculative VIX-long position. Have dropped an SLV-short, although will look to pick that up again in a day or two... broader trend for metals remains weak.
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VIX update from Mr T.


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back at 2pm

11am update - the charts offer trouble this afternoon

The hourly equity MACD cycle is rolling over... set to turn negative into the afternoon. From a purely 'chart perspective', the sp'2020s remain a viable target by late today. Such a sharp drop will require some 'fiercely spooky' news updates from Brussels.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*metals remain weak, Gold -$12..... whilst Oil -3.5%
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I realise the sp'2020s look a crazy downside target by end of today... but it is possible. In terms of VIX.. that would likely equate to 21/22s.

Certainly.... stay tuned.... and be mindful of a very sharp snap lower on 'ohh noes' news. For those in the market today.... it is a highly dangerous day.
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Notable weakness: TSLA -3.9% in the $207s.... ahead of earnings.
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11.06  EXITED SLV- short... looking vulnerable to bouncing... not least if Gold jumps on any 'spooky news'.

.. am considering an index put position... hmmm


11.19am LONG VIX.. from 17.30....

Certainly.... will be 'interesting' if market starts to slide.

... this is my first VIX trade since summer 2013.


11.29am Market remains seeing minor chop... stuck under resistance of sp'2072... with VIX 17s..... interesting afternoon ahead.

*TSLA remains weak, -3%

10am update - opening minor weakness

US equities open a little lower, but its certainly nothing significant, despite the continuing Greek concerns. Metals are on the slide...set to lose the 50dma, Gold -$3. Oil is very weak ahead of the latest inventory report, -2.9%


sp60min

GLD, daily

Summary

*I remain short the precious metals via SLV... it looks okay right now... if the 50dma is lost... should be another 4-6% downside in the near term.
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So.... market is a touch lower, but is clearly going to strongly react to any Greek headlines later today.

Notable weakness, TSLA -3.2% @ $209... on concerns about earnings due AH. Personally, I think it'll be in the $230s this time tomorrow...

*awaiting the EIA report at 10.30am............


10.31m 4.9 million barrels surplus... its a lot... Oil -4.6%