Wednesday, 11 February 2015

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, sp -4pts, we're set to open at 2064. Metals are a little higher, Gold +$4. Oil continues to slip ahead of the next inventory report, -1.5%.


sp'daily5


Summary

*another night of little sleep.... and if I disappear today... its because of that. The coming weekend is a three day one (market CLOSED Monday Feb'16th for 'presidents day')... and frankly... I need a break.
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We have a possibly very busy day ahead.  There will be talks in Brussels as the Greek finance minister tries to broker a deal.

The amounts involved are frankly trivial, but Germany and other EU states are getting real tired of their weakest member. However, the problem is that if Greece leaves... Spain/Portugal would almost certainly follow, and it is the possibility of Spain leaving that is the real issue here.

On balance... more 'can kicking' is likely... if only to drag this out for another year or so.
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Key support levels... Dow 17k.. if that fails... I'd guess rising support of 16500 would not hold, and open up a fast move to 15k.

As noted though... I would guess a deal is reached this week... to buy more time. After all, why would the EU want a financial/political crisis this month... or next?
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*most traders should be mindful of the EIA report at 10.30am, if inventories come in at 3-5 million barrels surplus, then Oil will surely be pressured lower... and that will (usually) put some pressure on the broader market.

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Update from Oscar


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Doomer chat - Hunter with the Schiff



 As ever, make of that... what you will.
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Notable early weakness, TSLA -1.8% in the $212s... ahead of earning due at the close. I'm guessing that one will jump above the key 200dma.. and open tomorrow in the $230s... if not higher.

Strength: AKAM, +5% in the $65s, on superb earnings.
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Good wishes for Wednesday trading

No floor yet for Oil

It was another rough day for WTIC Oil, settling -$2.41 (-4.6%) @ $50.02 (intra low $49.86). Regardless of the continued wild day to day swings, the broader trend - from June 2014, remains starkly bearish. There remains viable downside to the $35/30 zone into the early summer.


WTIC, monthly2, rainbow


WTIC, daily


Summary

*its late... and I'll keep this short..
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Suffice to say... no clear sign of a turn/floor yet.. not least with no indication that global oil supply is being cut.
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Looking ahead

Wed' will see Fed official Fisher in NYC, speaking (8am) on Monetary policy. 

The only data of note will be US Treasury budget.. but these days.. few care about that.

*Oil traders should be mindful of the latest EIA report at 10.30am... another big increase in inventories would give the market the excuse to knock prices into the 48/47s.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities saw some rather significant gains, sp +21pts @ 2068. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.9% and 0.6% respectively. Near term outlook is highly uncertain... whilst the 'Greek situation' continues. A break >2072 would be suggestive of new historic highs.. otherwise... 2025/20 zone.


sp'daily5


R2K


Summary

Little to add.

Market had a surprisingly strong day, after opening gains that largely failed.. but from sp'2048, the market appears to have benefited from a relentless short-stop cascade.

The R2K saw a particularly strong reversal, having been lower by -0.5% in the morning, but closing with a rather bullish spike-floor daily candle.
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Closing update from Riley


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a little more later...