10am update - opening reversal

Equities open higher, but there are signs that the gains will completely fail. There is a black-fail candle on the R2K hourly cycle... along with a reversal candle (hollow red) on the VIX. The sp'2020s remain a highly probable target... late today/tomorrow. Metals are weak, Gold -$6, with Silver -0.9%


R2K, 60min

VIX'60min

Summary

All things considered, the sp'2020s still look highly likely by tomorrow.

It will only take a single headline on the news wires to smack this market into the 2020s.. which is very viable by end of today.
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Notable weakness, oil/gas drillers, RIG -6%... SDRL -4%... it would seem RIG was downgraded by Credit Suisse
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9.56am   Oil -2.4%.... and that is starting to cause problems for equities.. esp' the R2K.. now turning negative


10.03am.... so... right now.. best case for the bears by end of today.. sp'2025/20.. with VIX 21... that'd certainly give the mainstream a bit of a jolt.

time to cook... back soon..........


10.29am.. R2K -0.5%... and the bigger weekly chart is starting to look a little bit stinky.

Keep in mind, the bearish monthly cross on the sp'500 from end January.. is STILL holding.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +13pts, we're set to open at 2059. Metals are weak, Gold -$6, with Silver -1.1%. Oil is somewhat weak, -0.9%, but holding above the big $50 threshold.


sp'60min

Summary

So.. we're set for opening gains, although nothing too significant.

However, I strongly expect the gains to reverse.. and fail today. After last weeks hyper gains, a retrace to the 2020s still looks HIGHLY probable before the bull maniacs have a chance at new highs.

Traders should be mindful of an opening reversal. Eyes sharp for any black-fail candles on the index 15/60min cycle charts.

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Update from Carboni


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*in far more important news though... Sony have decided to share the Spiderman to Disney... .so the Avengers will have another important Allie for the battle about against the mad titan Thanos.

Yes... now THAT is indeed the biggest news of the year so far ;)

Bullish DIS
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Notable early weakness .. oil/gas drillers, RIG/SDRL both lower by around -3.5%
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*I'm still struggling... so... updates still somewhat sporadic. In any case.... have a good Tuesday.


9.36am... opening black-fail on the R2K....   bulls... beware!

9.43am.. opening reversal in the VIX.... confirming the R2K


9.46am... the reversal candles are holding...  its pretty important..... would be pretty amusing to see a complete fail of this opening nonsense.

Daily Wrap

US equities closed weak, sp -8pts @ 2046. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.0% and -0.8% respectively. Market looks highly vulnerable to slipping to the sp'2020s in the immediate term.


sp'daily5

sp'weekly7

Summary

*despite a net daily decline, the weekly chart offers a new green candle, a fair reminder of underlying price pressure
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Closing update from Riley




Economic/market chatter - Mr Long... and Mr Smith



Highly recommended for those with an interest in the bigger picture.
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Looking ahead

The only notable data is wholesale trade, and frankly, I don't think many will care. Mr Market will be far more concerned about Greece.

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Goodnight from London