Friday, 6 February 2015

12pm update - holding above old resistance

US equities are holding moderate gains, but far more importantly... are above key resistance of sp'2064. A weekly close in 2065/75 zone would be very bullish for next week. Metals remain within what is a likely new multi-month down wave, Gold -$35. VIX is melting lower, -2% in the 16.50s.


sp'daily5


GLD, weekly'3, outlook


Summary

*the metals sure look weak, new multi-year lows look due this spring, and there remains a viable target zone of Gold $900/875 by late summer.. before a key floor is in. No doubt though.. .the Gold bugs will be calling a floor this afternoon, much like the previous 1000 days.
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As for equities... we look set to close above resistance... offering the sp'2100s in the current wave.

Notable strength: BAC, +4.9%
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VIX update from Mr T.


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time for tea.... back at 2pm

11am update - no failure

US equities have stabilised from a marginally shaky open.. and have built moderate gains into the sp'2070s..  around 1% from breaking a new historic high. Metals continue to unravel... Gold -$32.. making for a net weekly decline of -4% or so. Oil is holding gains of 1.3%.


sp'60min


Summary

The hourly cycle is somewhat interesting, with the break above resistance of sp'2064... but really....

...reflect on the following for a few minutes...

Dow, weekly


Effectively.. a 900pt swing from the Monday morning low.. a HYPER bullish weekly candle... of the 'bullish engulfing' type. The strongest up swing in a very long while.
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*having dropped TWTR (long) at the open, I am content to be out for the weekend. It is time for Gold Rush yet?

10am update - break of resistance... and fail?

US equities break key resistance of sp'2064... but have already turned fractionally red. Bull maniacs could do with a daily net gain... otherwise there is a real threat of a notable failure. Metals are sharply lower, Gold -$24. Oil is holding gains of 1.4%... but as ever... is highly vulnerable to turning lower.


sp'60min


Summary

*I exited TWTR at the open.. @ $46.20 (long calls from $41.50 yesterday)... it makes up for last Friday's rather annoying 'sell into the weekend' trade. Its been a long.... long time since I meddled in any of the momo stocks.
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So... opening gains... but its looking a little shaky... eyes to the VIX....

Equity bears really could do with the ECB opening its mouth today... but that is of course an impossible thing to predict.

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Notable gains in TWTR


So.. an earnings jump into the first target zone of 45/47, having been churning out a base for around 2 months.
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10.15am.. Indexes battling hard to hold gains.... next level.. upper daily bol...@ sp'2075. 

Metals continue to sink, Gold -$29... having broken below key support of GLD 120