Closing Brief

US equities closed somewhat weak - swinging lower on ECB comments, sp -8pts @ 2041 (intra high 2054). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.2% and -0.5% respectively. Near term outlook is offering a Thursday down wave to 2030/20s... before renewed upside on monthly jobs data.


sp'60min

Summary

*a VERY bearish closing hour, with a classic bearish engulfing candle on the hourly cycle. It bodes strongly in favour of the equity bears tomorrow. Target zone is 2025/20.
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So... a little drama in the closing hour. Sporadic comments from the ECB will remain a problem for the bull manaics in the weeks.. and months ahead. We all love the drama though.. especially in the last hour of the day, right?

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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - chop into the close

US equities look set for subdued chop, with a daily close in the sp'2045/55 zone. VIX is reflecting a somewhat calmer market.. holding the mid 17s. Gold remains holding gains of $5. Oil remains sharply lower, -6.8% in the $48s.


sp'60min

Summary

Somewhat interesting day, mostly via activity in stocks such as DIS and FCX/TCK (the latter are weak.. as USD climbs.. pressuring commodities).

Market remains pretty much stuck between 2064.. and the recent spike floor of 1980. Until it is either side of that.. it remains... tricky.

Without question... near term... hourly cycle threatening bearish cross tomorrow.. so 2030/20s viable... not least if Oil comes close to breaking a new low. More on Oil later though...
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3.51pm.. oh noes.. the ECB is speaking... HUGE bearish engulfing candle on the hourly cycle... bearish for Thursday....

... now its gets interesting

2pm update - the chop continues

US equities remain in chop mode... after two days of very strong gains. The hourly cycle is threatening a rollover early tomorrow morning... with opportunity of a minor wave lower to around sp'2035.. perhaps 2020. Gold holding minor gains of $3. Oil remains sharply lower, -6.4% in the $49s.


sp'60min

Summary

Suffice to note... it remains a damn tricky market.

Bulls can't get hyper confident until we break/hold over sp'2064. That will be somewhat difficult, since the hourly MACD cycle is offering a bearish cross early tomorrow.

At best.. maybe 2025/20 or so... but personally, I won't short it. Overly risky...and I'm tired of getting churned to pieces.
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Notable strength: DIS +8.2% in the upper $101s.

TWTR +1.8%.. ahead of tomorrow's earnings (due at the Thurs' close).