Monday, 26 January 2015

11am update - underlying strength

Mr Market has little concern about Greece, with all indexes in the process of turning positive. Metals remain notably weak, Gold -$14.. with a viable new multi-week down cycle now underway. Oil is holding minor gains of 0.6%


sp'daily5


R2K, daily


Summary

*it is notable that the daily upper bol' on the sp' continues to tick lower.. .now around 2095. Certainly, there will be resistance in the 2090/2100 zone.
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So... all those bears getting overly excited at the futures last night are already disappointed, and its not even 11am.

Any daily close in the sp'2060s would be a bonus, and open up 2090s by Thur/Friday... when we have the big GDP data.

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*I remain long via the R2K, seeking an exit in the 1215/20 zone... certainly seems viable later this week.

10am update - weak, but nothing significant

The US equity market has started the week on a negative note, but it is certainly nothing of significance. Metals are on the slide, Gold -$11. Oil is higher by a moderate 0.5%


sp'60min


Summary

So.. we're lower, with a clear break of trend on the hourly cycle.

All things considered though - not least the Greek election, price action is nothing for the equity bulls to get worried about.

A daily close >2030 is a 'must' though.
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notable weakness, STX...


Lower by almost a full -10%, but still... I like the company across the longer term. Great drives... never had one fail on me yet!
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*Gold bugs should be very concerned of a new multi-week down cycle that might be underway. There is already plenty of chatter about a post FOMC smack down... and that would not surprise me. As ever... implications for the miners.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures have largely recovered from overnight lows, sp -5pts, we're set to open at 2046. Metals are starting the week on a down note... Gold -$9. Oil is making another attempt to bounce, +1.3%.


sp'daily5


Summary

So.. the market has largely recovered from rather sharp overnight declines, sp' was lower by around 1% for a fair part of the night.

It will be kinda important for the equity bulls to at least settle the day flat. Anything in the 2060s would be a bonus - considering overnight conditions.

As for Greece... as Oscar might say... 'who cares'. All the talk of a GREXIT is very premature we could easily be a few years away from that. To me, the eventual implication is that Spain and Portugal will likely follow. Both are basketcase economies... and shouldn't be holding to the Euro anymore.

In any case... we have an interesting week ahead... FOMC on Wed', and GDP on Friday, along with a great many earnings of course.

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Update from Oscar


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Hunter wth Fitts.. a surprisingly balanced discussion on the year ahead


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Have a good week!