Tuesday, 6 January 2015

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a touch higher, sp +3pts, we're set to open at 2023. Metals continue to climb, Gold +$7. Oil remains in collapse mode -1.8%, in the mid $48s.


sp'daily5


Summary

*awaiting ISM/PMI service sector, factory orders data
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So...a little higher to start the day but market will be highly vulnerable to renewed downside, not least with Oil still collapsing.
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Notable early weakness, SDRL -1.5%, CHK -2.0%
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Update from Mr C.


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Have a good Tuesday

Oil and King Dollar

WTIC Oil continues to slide, and today lost the key $50 threshold, settling -$2.77 (-5.2%). There is viable downside to the $47/43 zone in the immediate term. Meanwhile, with the Euro unable to hold 1.21, the USD continued to strengthen, +0.2%, headed for the giant 100 threshold.


WTIC, monthly'2, rainbow


Summary

It is only the second trading day of January, and already, we're now in the secondary target zone of $50/45. The decline in Oil remains an exceptional event. The only issue now is whether WTIC Oil will floor in the 40s...or the 30s. Considering the utter lack of concern from OPEC... the latter seems very likely.


Meanwhile... King of paper currencies.. the USD... continues to climb

USD, monthly'1


The giant 100 threshold looks set to be hit this year... at the current rate.. by late spring.
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Looking ahead

Tuesday will see ISM/PMI service sector, along with factory orders, that will certainly be enough to give the market an excuse to sell a further minor wave lower.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equity indexes settled broadly lower for the fourth consecutive day, sp -37pts (-1.8%) @ 2020. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, closed -2.7% and -1.4% respectively. Near term outlook offers a key floor within the next few days.. before new historic highs in late Jan/early Feb.


sp'daily5


R2K


Trans


Summary

An interesting start to the week, but overall... the pre-FOMC low of sp'1972 looks unlikely to be broken in this down cycle.

Most indexes have now filled the price gap zone... although the breaks of the 50dma's are something of a problem.
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Closing update from Riley


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a little more later...