2pm update - awaiting the fedspeak

It is that time of the month again, another press release from those money printing maniacs at the US Fed. Meanwhile, there is some crazy price action in the metals.. having seen a lunch time swing from -$22 to +$3. Energy prices are holding strong gains. Oil +1.0%


GLD, 5min

Summary

Suffice to say... the algo-bots will be ready to snap prices one way or another... real soon.
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Considering the bigger daily cycles.. especially those of the Trans/R2K, I am seeking renewed weakness into the close.

A daily close <2039 would make things much more clearer.
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Notable weakness, TWTR -2.3%... unable to hold the $40 threshold... looks set for broader declines to around $30... regardless of how strong the market might be into year end.


2.04pm... Twitchy market... USD slips a touch lower.... metals bounce... but still look overall weak.

... watching the cheer leaders on clown finance TV talk about how many times word X or Y was mentioned...... utterly embaressing.... and of course... pathetic.


2.06pm... Wild swing to the downside in Gold... from +$3.. to -$12... in minutes


2.21pm.. Gold  back to flat.... still very twitchy though.

Main market looks stuck.... typical turn time is 2.30pm.. as ever.....

First downside target is a daily close under the 10MA of sp'2040/39.


2.25pm.. baby bear flag on the smaller 5/15min index cycles being confirmed...  weakness into the close... anything <2037 would be a bonus to the bears.

12pm update - awaiting a clear break

US equities are weak, with the sp'500 teasingly close to breaking the daily 10MA @ 2039/40. Metals remain sharply lower, having snapped earlier, Gold -$17, price structure is a large bear flag.. the bigger target of $1000 remains very probable.


sp'daily5

GLD, daily

Summary

*action in the metals/miners remains very volatile. Price structure for both is arguably a large bear flag... with much lower levels still due. If the USD can climb into 89/90s... then Gold will break well under <$1100 before year end.
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So... we've hit sp'2040... but a daily close <2038/37 would make things a lot clearer for the remainder of this week.. and most of next. A retrace is well overdue, as even the most permabullish would accept.

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VIX update from Mr T.


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time for tea....
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12.13pm... Something 'odd' is going on in metals land

GLD, 5min

Crazy swings.. if it can break positive again.. that'd be a real surprise.

12.17pm.... and Gold turns positive..    Someone got hold of the FOMC minutes already, is that it?

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back at 2pm... just before the FOMC minutes

11am update - increasingly weak

US equities look weak, with the important daily 10MA of sp'2039 set to be broken today.  Precious metals have snapped sharply lower, Gold -$18. Oil is turning negative after inventories come in 'overly high'.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

*VIX looks set for the 16/17s in the near term.
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Finally.. the tedious price action of the past few weeks looks like it is coming to an end.

The sp'500.. and even the Dow, look set to follow the Trans/R2K, which have been warning of trouble for the last 4-5 days.
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11.01am.. R2K getting the smack down... -1.6%.... looking ugly.

time for a somewhat early lunch :)