10am update - opening minor weakness

US equities open a little lower, but clearly.. its nothing for the equity bears to get excited about. Mr Market is likely to remain in a holding pattern ahead of the FOMC minutes (2pm). Metals are moderately mixed, whilst energy is on the rise, Oil +0.5%.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

*VIX turns positive MACD cycle for the first time since Oct'20th. Near term upside to 16/17.
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First target for the equity bears should be a daily close under the 10MA.. sp'2039/40... that is certainly viable today... and would backup what the Trans/R2K have been warning about for the last 4-5 days.

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Notable weakness, FCX -1% in the $27s.... next support are the $25s. Anyone bearish on Copper... should be looking for a key floor for FCX around $20 in spring 2015.
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10.34am.. With the daily index cycles now marginally bearish... and a positive VIX cycle... finally... after 25 trading days UP... things are getting a little interesting.

Lots of weakness... Oil/gas drillers, SDRL -3%

Regardless... awaiting the FOMC minutes.


10.43am... Finally.. looks like 10MA ... 2039.. will be broken today....

*metals snap lower.. Gold -$10.... miners following... GDX -3.5%  JDST +12%... offering a clear turn.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, sp -4pts, we're set to open at 2047. Metals are a little higher, Gold +$2. Energy prices are bouncing, Nat' gas +3.8%, whilst Oil +1.0%. Equity bears need an initial break of the daily 10MA of sp'2037.


sp'daily5

Summary

*key issue today... the FOMC minutes @ 2pm.
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In any case... equity bears should be desperate for a break back under the daily 10MA... currently sp'2037.
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Early mover, TSLA -3.1%... I've no idea why though.
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Doomer chat... Hunter with the (usually moody) Celente



As ever, make of that... what you will.
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Have a good Wednesday

Daily Wrap

The hyper-ramp from Oct'15th continues, with the sp' now having gained 235pts (12.9%) across 25 trading days. There remains moderate threat of a retrace, but at best.. sp'1980/50 zone, regardless.. broader upside into the 2130/50 zone.


sp'daily5

Dow, daily

Summary

Unquestionably... tedious... and for those still attempting to short the indexes, this is worse case scenario. An effective 13% ramp across 25 days, with new historic highs in the Dow, Trans, and sp'500.

The Nasdaq Comp' has managed post 2009 highs, and is now around 430pts shy of the tech bubble peak (5132, March 2009). Only the R2K and NYSE Comp' are yet to break new highs, and the weekly/monthly cycles are very bullish into early next year.


Looking ahead

Housing starts, and the EIA oil report. However, the main aspect tomorrow will be the latest FOMC minutes, due 2pm. Mr Market might use it as excuse to break lower.. but current price action offers little hope of such a move.
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Closing update from Riley


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Biderman on clown finance TV

*warning... Tom Lee is in this video.. may induce nausea or sporadic zombie-rage.



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A decade of GLD

I shall end the day with something that clown finance TV covered today, the tenth anniversary of the Gold ETF... GLD.

Seriously... back in Nov'2004, is that the Bernank... behind Pisani and the relics?

Goodnight from London