11am update - a case of the Mondays?

Mr Market remains relatively subdued, but with distinct short term weakness.. lead lower by the two leaders - Trans/R2K. Metals remain weak - not helped by the stronger USD, Gold -$5.. stuck under the old broken floor.


R2K, daily

GLD, daily

Summary

*Metals are always interesting to keep an eye on, not least as another round of floor callers appeared this past weekend. Three years.. and they're still at it. Until a few of the bigger gold bug sites shut down... Mr Market has a fair few 'bugs to crush'.
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Front month cash VIX is holding gains of 7%.. and yes.. as someone noted, the further out VIX is not rising much right now.

Even if equity bears do get a retrace in the near term... we're almost certainly not looking at a sustained move over 20.

To me, seems utterly pointless to get involved in any LONG vix instruments for the rest of the year. The only thing that'd change my mind would be a break back under sp'1900, and seriously... chances of that seem less than 0.01%
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stay tuned
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ps. Did you get the note on the TPS reports today?

10am update - opening minor weakness

US equities open lower, but so far, its very slight, and there is the threat of indexes turning positive this morning. The rising USD is causing problems in commodity land, Gold -$5, with Oil -0.9%. VIX opened up a full 10%.. so far peaking at 14.73.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

*the opening action in the VIX is somewhat curious.. a daily close in the 15s would really clarify matters. Daily MACD cycle on the VIX.. set to turn positive at the Tuesday open.
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Notable gainer...

BHI +9% @ $65, official takeover from HAL.... which will almost certainly go through.
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In Energy land.. Nat' gas catching a bid.. +2.6%.. so long as it can hold the big $4... viable upside across the winter.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, sp -4pts, we're set to open at 2035. With the USD clawing higher by 0.2%, the metals are a little lower, Gold -$4. An interesting week is ahead, one where the equity bears might finally start to see a retrace back under sp'2000.


sp'daily5

Summary

A break under the daily 10MA (2031) looks very viable today, and in many ways, that will make for a pretty good warning that a retrace is finally underway.

Best guess remains... sp'1980/50 zone by early December. Under no 'reasonable' outlook do I see sub'1900s in the near term.

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Hunter with Peter 'I'm still a dollar doomer' Schiff



I do agree with Schiff on a great many things, but the USD ain't going anywhere. I wish he could drop that mantra.
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Update from Mr Carboni



As any of you regular readers will know, I remain broadly bearish on the precious metals into next year.. and by default.. the miners. Friday was a strong gain, but then.. so was the previous Friday, and that didn't work out so well.
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Good wishes for the week ahead!
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9.24am... For those already awake... Oil is starting to slide, -1.2%... once again though, Nat' gas is going against Oil, +1.9%

*HAL -6%, buy BHI, +11% ... not surprising.. makes me wonder about RIG, SDRL, and indeed.. all of those 'crazy' priced coal/gold/silver/copper miners.


9.32am.. Interesting opening jump in the VIX of 10.4%... almost in the 15s, whilst indexes only a touch lower.