12pm update - chop chop

US equities continue to see mixed chop.. with a touch of weakness. A weekly close under the daily 10MA of sp'2030 looks viable, which would likely equate to VIX 15s. Metals are holding sig' gains of $12, having reversed from -$12. Weakening USD is no doubt helping.


R2k, daily

GLD ,daily

Summary

*R2K lead the way higher..and looks to be doing the same for the next (moderate) down wave. We're already under the daily 10MA, and due a bearish MACD cross at the Monday open
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There is little else to add right now, on what is a relatively quiet end to the week. All the wild day to day swings of late Sept/early Oct' are now a fading memory.

At best, bears might see sp'1950 within 2-3 weeks, but really, that seems all that is viable.
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VIX update from Mr T.


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time for tea.... back at 2pm

11am update - price momentum still ticking lower

US equities are seeing minor chop, and a break under the daily 10MA of sp'2030 now looks very viable this afternoon. With the USD losing most of the earlier gains, the metals/miners are rebounding strongly, Gold +$13.


sp'daily5

Summary

*see MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle, which has now ticked lower for the ninth consecutive day. The fact the market has managed to claw new highs - as recently as yesterday, is testament to the powerful underlying strength.
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A bearish MACD cross looks due in 2-3 days.. which should see the sp'500 slip back below the big 2000 threshold.

At best...1980/50... on no outlook can I see sub 1900 for the remainder of the year.
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Notable reversal... metals/miners

GLD, daily

A powerful bullish engulfing candle... same for the miners. If those levels hold into the weekly close.. it is bullish.. at least for early next week.

10am update - first target 2031

US equities with minor mixed chop. Equity bears should be seeking a break under the daily 10MA of sp'2031... along with a weekly VIX close in 15s. Metals are weak, Gold -$3, whilst Oil is bouncing, +0.9%.


sp'daily5

Summary

*consumer sentiment, 89.4.... pretty high, but still below the 'property bubble' highs
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It has been a very quiet week... any daily close <2030 would probably clarify that the next week or two will be one of moderate downside.
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Notable weakness, DRYS -2.8% @ $1.37.... a terrible decline from a year ago... when it briefly managed $5.00
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10.03am.. I've no idea why, but metals are swinging strongly higher... Gold +$3... with the miners following... GDX from -2.1% to +0.3%


10.08am . Gold +$7...    the USD is cooling, slipping back under 88.... so.. that is probably the reason.. along with short covering.

Regardless.. broader metal/miner trend is still lower.