Friday, 14 November 2014

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are flat, the sp' is set to open at 2039. With the USD breaking new cycle highs of 88.20, the metals are sharply lower, Gold -$13. This is impacting the miners, the ETF of GDX -2.1%. Oil is a touch higher, +0.1%


sp'daily5


Summary

*retail sales, +0.3%.. a touch higher than expected.
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So.. flat market, but with the USD on the rise, there is some downward pressure across ALL $ asset classes.

Interesting day ahead.

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Update from Mr C.



Not surprisingly, Oscar is bullish... all the way to the sp'2100s.. and that target looks viable by year end.
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Good wishes for Friday.

Oil prices remain on track

It was another bearish day for energy prices, with Nat' gas falling -4.1%, settling @ $3.98. WTIC Oil closed lower by a very significant -3.5% @ $74.21. The broader downside target of $65/60 zone looks well within range by early next year.


WTIC, monthly'2


Nat'gas, weekly


Summary

Perhaps most amusing.. if not outright bizarre today, was seeing clown finance TV (channel'1, aka CNBC) hostess... Kelly Evens seem borderline upset at the continued falls in Oil prices.

Evans spoke of the 'commodity bubble bursting'.  I almost fell out of my chair, just consider the following...

CRB, weekly, 6yr


Far from being a commodity bubble, commodity prices have been weak since early 2011. I'm not sure who was writing the script for Evans this afternoon, but it was even more incorrect than normal.

Today's CRB close of 264 was the lowest level since Aug'2010, back in the days pre-QE2, and before the Gold/Silver bubble blew up.
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Looking ahead

Friday will see Retail sales, import/export prices, consumer sent' and business inventories. That will be a fair amount for Mr Market to cope with, and if any of the data comes in a little weak, it'll be a very fair excuse for the market to sell lower into the weekend.

*the nat'gas report is also due, a day late, due to the Tues' semi-holiday
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities broke a trio of new historic highs in the morning, but saw increasing weakness in the latter half of the day, sp' settling +1pt @ 2039 (intra high 2046). Near term outlook offers a retrace, back under the giant sp'2000 level.


sp'daily5


R2K


Trans


Summary

Even the most permabullish traders are now seeking some degree of equity market retrace.

What is clear though, considering the regular new index highs, a move back under the critical sp'1900 level, looks out of range.
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Closing update from Riley



How can the 'Pitbull low' be deemed in, if we broke a new historic high this morning?
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a little more later...