2pm update - micro churning

Mr Market is more than content with the world. With cheerleaders and analysts blatantly noting that Fed official 'Bullard' will appear as necessary to inspire confidence, there seems little point in any shorts, even for a test of the 50dma.. which is a clear 3% lower.


sp'daily5

Summary

*I generally steer clear of the cesspool that is Zerohedge, but the story of the guest on CNBC (which I watched live) was indeed bizarre viewing

see:HERE
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Market price action remains extremely tight... and market is in classic algo-bot melt mode.. as always reflected in the VIX.. cooling -3% in the low 13s.

A drop to the 50dma still seems likely this month, but the notion of sub 1900s... seems completely implausible.. even if the moon explodes this weekend.

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There remains a notable bounce in the precious metals...

GLD, daily

I've been ground down to pieces in equities.. but if there is one thing that has remained on track across the last few years.. its the decline in Gold.

Today is almost certainly just another bounce. At best.. a back test of the broken floor, before renewed downside into year end. If correct, that will of course mean the miners will follow.

12pm update - bearish sacrifice

US equities remain in algo-bot melt mode, with another new high of sp'2034. VIX is similarly in melt mode, -1% in the mid 13s. Metals are holding onto post jobs data gains, Gold +$21... with the miner ETF of GDX +5.7%. Oil is similarly on the climb, +1.3%


sp'60min

GDX, daily

Summary

Price action remains classic algo-bot melt mode, perhaps one of the most tiresome phenomena anyone can experience.

The real action is in the metals/miners. Metals are battling to bounce hard.. but the old broken floor of Gold $1179 is going to be near impossible to break back over. Similarly, miners will likely get stuck.. and turn lower once metals are exhausted. Broader targets remain unchanged.
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The cursed Permabear

I am quite aware I am cursed, and it is rarely easy in my world. I have battled through much of 2014 in warrior mode, but it hasn't been enough. Effectively a year of overall failure. What is clear though, sacrifices have to be made on the part of the equity/macro-econ bears, and why not via me?

With a real attempt to maximise loss (via the smaller 5/15min cycles), I have duly closed out a remaining index-short at sp'2033. Hopefully, it will be enough of a 'bearish sacrifice' to turn this market lower.

Right now, at best, equity bears might get a hit of the 50dma - the sp'1970s within a week or two.
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VIX update from Mr T


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time for a capitulation lunch (which surprisingly, doesn't include cyanide today).
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1pm... little to add.

Minor chop.. with VIX stuck in the mid 13s.
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Notable recovery in RIG, +0.2%... which is a strong reversal from opening -8%. Overall though, the news is lousy, and with broadly weak oil prices, the oil/gas drillers look set for much lower levels into spring 2015.

back at 2pm

11am update - just another set of new highs

US equity indexes break another trio of new historic highs in the Dow, Trans, and sp'500 (2032). There is notable strength in the precious metals, Gold +$20, with Silver 1.6%. This is helping the miners, GDX +5.8%.


sp'60min

Summary

New highs in 3 indexes... price action is much like yesterday. We're in algo-bot melt mode.

VIX looks floored in the 14/13s.. and is still suggestive of at least a move to the 18/20 zone, but overall, there is ZERO hope of anything significant for the bears.

No doubt, the BoJ are buying up the market this morning. After all... what else would they do?

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As for the metals.. its merely a bounce. The Gold floor was taken out last week, just how stupid are people to already have forgotton that? Ohh, thats right, they are the gold/silver bugs.

GLD, daily

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*I'm considering closing out an index short at the top of the next up wave. A 'sacrificial bear capitulation' on my part, just might be what is necessary to turn this market around.
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11.25am.. Closed out an index-short...

Best attempt to maximise loss, sp'2033.

I can only hope - for the rest of the bears holding out, it is enough of a sacrifice to turn this market lower next week.

yours..
  no positions.... done for the year (probably)