Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are sharply higher, sp +23pts, we're set to open at 2017, just 2pts shy of a new historic high. The Dow is set to open up 175pts, which will be a new historic high in the upper 17300s. Precious metals.... continue to collapse, Gold -$24.


sp'daily5

Summary

Well, without question, its white flag waving time.

The 'old leader' - Transports, broke a new high on Tuesday, a new historic high for the Dow looks set at this mornings open.... with the sp'500 set to follow.

VIX will no doubt drop into the 13s.. if not the 12s.
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re: Metals.

Gold has taken out the June 2013 low of $1179. There is now empty air to the giant $1000 level.. which is possibly as early as next week.

Miners are naturally continuing to crash, in early trading, the ETF of GDX -3% in the mid $17s... headed for 15/14.

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Update from Carboni



No doubt Oscar is (justifiably) very pleased with himself, and his original target of the sp'2100s are again viable by year end.
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Well... with the down wave from 2019 t0 1820.. bears had a chance. A bounce into the mid 1900s was expected. We saw that... but it has just kept on going. This morning we're set to break new highs... and without question... its white flag waving time.

For the equity bulls, this is one hell of a Halloween treat.
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8.48am... Metals continue to weaken...  Gold -$32, with Silver -3.7%     Miners GDX' -3.9%

sp +20pts... 2014
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Notable weakness, Oil -1.4%... but then.. that is bullish US economy/consumer..right?


9.21am.. sp +25pts.. we're set to break a new historic high at the open of 2019/20.

Gold -$34.... miners GDX -5.0%.....
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9.39am.. Opening reversal candle on the VIX..... interesting... 

End month trick or treat?

With just one day left of the month, equity bulls have achieved an incredible ramp from sp'1820 to a new cycle high of 1999. On any basis, equity bears must achieve some significant Halloween weakness, back into the 1960s, otherwise it will bode for upside across November.


sp'monthly

Summary

It is pretty clear... if we don't close tomorrow, with the sp -25pts.. back under 1970...the monthly close will be a pretty damn bullish spike-floor candle.. suggestive of upside into year end.
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Looking ahead

Friday will be pretty busy.. with Fed official Williams speaking in South Africa, although it s very hard to say if any comments might be market related.

In terms of econ-data, pers' income/outlays, employment costs, Chicago PMI, consumer sent.
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*I am short from sp'1981, and will seek to exit into the weekend... although considering today's closing level, even the low 1970s look somewhat difficult to reach.
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Crazy market... what else is new?

Yesterday, I was seeking a micro double top of 1990/91. This morning, the market opens a little weak....and on a minor bounce...I short, the market quickly falls to 1974.. before a rally into the afternoon.

All things seemed 'tolerable', until that headline flashed over the Nikkei wires... yet it was a two week old story. How in the hell could the market seriously ramp on that? Having had some hours to reflect on this afternoon... I still can't make any sense of it.

This market is rarely boring. There is always something of interest going on. Friday will be no different. The key issue is whether bears can achieve a significant daily decline to offer some hope for next month.

I see a fair few people touting the sp'2100s, or at the very least, the 2025/50 zone before year end. I could counter and highlight the weakness in Oil, Copper, precious metals, miners... it could be a very long list. Suffice to say, new equity highs simply do not make sense right now, not least with QE having ended.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed somewhat mixed, sp +12pts @ 1994 (intra high 1999), with the Dow +1.3% @ 17195. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.9% and +0.8% respectively. Near term outlook is still offering a retrace to the sp'1930/25 zone.


sp'daily5

Dow

Trans

Summary

*this afternoon was offering a micro double top in the sp'500 of 1991, but that level was surpassed, arguably due to a story that flashed over the Nikkei news wires... a TWO week old story.
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The break to a new cycle high of sp'1999, with the Dow 17200s is a significant victory for the equity bulls. All that is left for the bulls to achieve now are new historic highs.. and we're only 1% away.

The 'old leader' - Transports, did close lower for the second consecutive day, but still.. equity bears can get confident at all.

There is currently no sign of a turn... and until the VIX is back in the 20s... it remains a very tricky market to play on the short side.
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Closing Brief from Riley



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a little more later...