10am update - new cycle highs

Equities break to new cycle highs, crucially, into the sp'1970s.. which is a major problem for equity bears. VIX is confirming the move, melting another 5% lower into the 15s. Metals and Oil are both holding moderate gains of around 0.3%


sp'60min

Summary

So, we're battling higher again, and the breach into the sp'1970s is significant.

Even more so, the Trans, which is very close to breaking a new historic high.

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notable weakness, FCX, -3.5%, post earnings, suffering from lower copper prices.

Great company, but whilst Copper prices continue to remain very weak - at the $3 threshold, miners are going to have real problems. The only good thing, fuel costs are lower.
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Notable strength: BABA, which did briefly hit $100.15 in pre-market
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Transports break a NEW historic high of 8718.  That is a huge victory for the equity bulls... all that is left are new highs in the headline indexes.
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10.26am.. so.. new Trans high.. and sp'1970s... some 150pts, 6.5% above the recent low.

With the Fed tomorrow afternoon, I ain't interested in getting involved ahead of that.

FCX continues to weaken, -5.1%

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +9pts, we're set to open at 1970.  Metals are bouncing, Gold +$6. A daily close in the sp'1970s would bode strongly against the bears, and be suggestive of new historic highs within the next few months.


sp'daily5

Summary

*Durable goods orders, -1.3%, much weaker than expected.
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So.. we're set for the 1970s this morning, a daily close in the 70s would do real damage to the notion of another major wave lower next month.

Watching Liesman on clown finance TV right now, it is pretty incredible to see how confident the cheerleaders now are of QE4. The recent equity down wave of almost 10% is still rattling them, even though we have almost fully recovered the declines. Truly bizarre.

A fair few out there are seeking the 1975/85 zone before a reversal, but really, that will turn the monthly cycles back to bullish. Equity bears must see a monthly close in the 1950s... or lower.

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Notable early weakness, TWTR, -13.5% in the $42s.. next support is around $40.

Strength: BABA +1.6% in the $99s. A break into the $100s would be pretty significant today. Many are seeking $120 within 6-9 months.

Daily Wrap

US equities saw a day of minor weak chop, sp -3pts @ 1961. The two leaders - Trans/R2K settled +0.7% and -0.1% respectively. Near term outlook offers continued chop..  with a brief foray into the 1970s.. before a swift reversal.


sp'daily5c - warning levels

Trans

Summary

*the Transports continues to be a major problem for those in bear land. If it breaks new highs, then it would bode strongly against any kind of November 'crashy' scenario.
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As things are, we have started the week with the second consecutive green candle on the weekly 'rainbow' chart...

sp'weekly7

Another green candle is not unexpected, and prices are stuck just under the key weekly 10MA, currently @ 1967. A brief move into the 1970s is tolerable, but I would certainly want to see a weekly/monthly close in the 1950s to keep the bigger cycles bearish.


Looking ahead

Tuesday will see Durable Goods orders, case shiller HPI, richmond fed, and consumer conf'. That should be plenty to wake most traders up, but many will likely not want to get involved ahead of the Fed.

*Next QE is.... ohh wait..... that's right.... its finally over :)
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Closing update from Riley



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Goodnight from London