12pm update - 157pts down, 129pts up

Since the failed break of Mon' Oct'6 - sp'1977, the sp' fell 157pts across 8 days, and has rebounded 129pts across 6 days. There is again increasing chatter of November 'problems' from people of quite different perspectives.


sp'daily5

sp'weekly7

Summary

*for those who like their analogies, it should be remembered that we saw a powerful green candle in late June 2011, before the market got stuck again.. putting in a critical lower high. Right now, I really want to see no higher than 1970.
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Today is day'5 UP, on any basis, I'm looking for 9 days, perhaps 14. Certainly, though, regardless of any minor weakness in the remainder of this week, there looks to be HIGH probability of sp'1960s.

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Next Wednesday's FOMC will surely announce the conclusion of QE3, which (surprisingly) didn't turn out to be so infinite after all.
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VIX update from Mr T.

*reposted.. as whoever is running their youtube channel.. finally gets it right


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time for tea

11am update - minor down wave due

Having climbed from sp'1820 to 1947 across six trading days, the market is looking a little tired. A minor retrace, back to 1910/05 looks viable, before another push to 1950/60s next week. Metals and Oil are both moderately weak, -0.5%


sp'60min

Summary

re: down cycle. Its just a 'moderate possibility'. On any basis, the hourly cycles are over stretched.. and its a rather obvious gap to fill.
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Notable strength: CHK +3.7%
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time for an early lunch
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11.21am.. its getting tiresome... sp'1948...a mere 1.1% away from 1970.. which for me, is where the bigger bearish outlook should get dropped.

Notable weakness, Silver -2.2%.. who needs silver in the new world econmy, eh?

10am update - minor opening gains

Equities break new cycle highs, sp +4pts @ 1945. VIX remains very subdued, slipping fractionally lower into the 15s. Metals are weak, Gold -$5, with Silver -1.7%.. that is not helping the miners, GDX -1.7%.


sp'daily5

GDX, daily

Summary

Daily MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle on the indexes are turning positive, and there is a viable 3-5 days more to the upside.. which will take us into the next FOMC.. when QE3 is set to be concluded.

So... sp'1950/60s look due...the only issue is do we get stuck there.

Monthly cycles are still suggestive of broader weakness...
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Video from Mr H.



The Cramer has indeed made for some truly bizarre viewing lately. A mere week ago he was effectively a doomer bear, but now.. its a 'everything is fine' mentality.
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*Kyle Bass... once one of the uber bears, coming up on clown finance TV.. ch'1 (CNBC) Bass used to have a huge following, but then he went long US real estate... many bears still not forgiven him for that sin, lol