Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a touch higher, sp +1pt, we're set to open at 1942. Metals are a little lower, Gold -$5, whilst Oil is higher by 0.5%. Equities look set to claw higher - if much more slowly, another 1% across the next 3-5 trading days.


sp'daily5

Summary

*CPI: 0.1%, vs 0.0 expected.
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So... today will be day'5 of the up wave. I don't actually count until the first clear daily gain, even though Wed' closed hugely above the lows.

Notable early mover, CHK +1.7% in the low $22s.

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Video update from Hunter, with Mr Hyperinflation.... Snyder



As ever... make of that.. what you will.

Have a good Wednesday!
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8.45am . Precious metals look particularly weak, Gold -$5, but Silver -1.7%.

No doubt, the gold bugs will be claiming all sorts of manipulation, but hey, they've been buying since spring 2011. Still need Gold $1000/900s.. before Mr Market has broken them.

Naturally, miners are weak, GDX -0.6%, back in the 20s... teens look due.

Weekly cycles turning

With a fourth day of equity gains, the bigger weekly cycles have clarified that last Wednesday's low of 1820 was at the very least, a short term floor. The ultimate question now is whether the current up wave is merely a crazy bounce, or the start of broader gains into early next year.


sp'weekly7 - bearish outlook

Summary

So... the fourth red weekly candle has turned blue... and it does clarify that last Wednesday was at least a short term floor. Whether it is a key low for the rest of the year... that is the big issue now.


The important 1970s

For me, I'm drawing the line.. literally around sp'1970. There are a fair number of aspects of resistance in the 1960s, and if we start putting in any daily closes in the 1970s, then the bigger bearish outlooks should get dropped.

sp'daily5b - bears last stand

I suppose the market could really try to annoy the most amount of traders with a brief break into the 1970/80s, only to swiftly reverse, but really, that would be so close to new historic highs, and arguably automatically rule out any hope of breaking <1820.


Looking ahead

The latest CPI is due, along with the EIA oil report.

*next QE is Thursday
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Update from Mr Permabull



Interestingly, Oscar's short term target zone is my 'last line' of sp'1970. I'd have to say to Oscar... ANY failure to break and hold over 1970 keeps a deeply bearish November on the menu.

A break back under sp'1900.. where there are old broken aspects of support - not least the 200dma.. would open up a swift crashy move to the sp'1650s.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed higher for the fourth consecutive day, sp +37pts @ 1941. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 3.1% and 1.6% respectively. Near term outlook is for continued equity gains into the 1950/60s.


sp'daily5

Dow

Summary

Little to add. The bounce continues.... and if it goes much beyond 1970, it'll be white flag waving time for the equity bears.
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a little more later...