Closing Brief

US equities broke the rather severe three day run of declines, managing mixed gains. sp' +3pts @ 1877 (range 1898/71). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 2.6% and 1.1% respectively. Near term outlook is for some degree of bounce across 2-3 weeks.


sp'60min

Summary

*with the new cycle low of sp'1871, I've adjusted the down channel.
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Suffice to say, another day for the equity bears. The earlier gains managing to 1898, was fully reversed with a 27pt swing to the downside across the afternoon.

Volatility is back.. and it ain't going away now for some months. Get used to it!
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Best guess.. we're still headed higher across the next 2-3 weeks. Whether we max out around 1950, 60.. or even a little higher... should make little difference to the equity bears. With the monthly cycles utterly broken, we're broadly headed much lower across the remainder of the year.
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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - battling to hold gains

Unlike yesterday afternoon, the market looks set to hold some gains into the close. With the break of the short term down trend, market looks set to put in some daily closes back in the sp'1900s. Broader picture though remains extremely bearish for November.


sp'60min

Summary

*price action is a simple break of trend... and arguably a back test of the down trend itself
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...well, yesterday things took a major hit, when the morning low of sp'1890 was taken out. I have to guess we won't see that happen in this closing hour. Price action is more stable, and we have a clear break of the down trend on the hourly cycle.

Equity bulls should be content with any daily close about the hourly 10MA, which in the closing hour will be around 1888 or so.
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Oil remains notably weak, -3.8%

..updates into the close
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3.09pm.. sp'1878.. equity bulls have a mere 3pts of buffer room left.... if 1874 fails... then another closing hour snap to 1860/50......

Its been so long since we've seen this.... I think almost everyone has forgotten.


3.22pm... and there goes the 1874 low....  VIX rallying... still -1%.. but set to turn green.

Door is now open to 1860/50 zone early tomorrow....

Ugly market... Oil -3.5%... and that sure isn't helping the energy stocks.


3.26pm.. another major fail for the bull maniacs. It truly is a full THREE years since we've seen this kind of price action.


3.30pm... regardless of the close... with new lows, the bears remain in FULL control.

The only notable aspect left to achieve is a corresponding higher high in the VIX.

Despite the index weakness, airlines are holding gains, DAL/UAL +5%


3.39pm  So.. we have new index lows, but the VIX is NOT confirming it.

With the Trans and R2K still positive on the day.... bulls still have provisional sign of a bounce.. although I realise the new Dow/SP' lows are sure as hell not bullish.


3.47pm... VIX still failing to confirm the earlier new index lows.

Regardless, another day in favour of the bears.. with the bulls still failing to sustain gains.

Notable strength, F +2%.. but its a clear 3% or so below old key support.

2pm update - still a bit choppy

US equities are holding moderate gains, but price action remains pretty choppy, with a minor pull back to the mid 1880s. VIX remains cooling, -7% in the 22s. There is renewed weakness in Oil, -2.2%, with Nat' Gas -2.6%.


sp'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

So... the sp'1874 low is still holding, and I'd expect it to hold into the close.

I realise though, some are seeking further downside to 1860/50 before a key low. I suppose its possible, but we do have a clear break of the down trend (see 60min cycle).

Notable strength: airlines, DAL, UAL, both higher by a very significant 5%
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2.30pm... despite the weakness, price structure is a baby bull flag.

so long as 1874 holds... its a valid bull flag leading higher into tomorrow.


2.37pm... with the move to 1880, micro flag is arguably busted. VIX clawing back upward... now -3%.

The one super bullish aspect today.... R2K +1.2%.


2.46pm... and another push higher....   this kind of volatility is still so.... unusual. VIX -7%