10am update - the 200 dma is hit

US equities open with some mixed weak chop, with a fractional break of the August low of sp'1904, and the 200dma of 1905. The next few days will be all about building a floor, before a 2-3 week climb to 1970/90. VIX is seeing some minor chop, currently a touch higher.


sp'daily5

Summary

Things look on track.

Mr Market could easily chop around these levels for a few days before the first sustained up wave.

Regardless, the bears had their down cycle.... its effectively done.. at least for a few weeks.
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Notable weakness, DRYS, -19%.... on news it is cancelling a debt auction...

I would hope it will stay afloat (no pun intended), I have been following the company since 2008, and it'd sad to see that one sink. (yeah.. that one is intended).
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10.01am... sp'1997... with VIX 22s...

Price action remains chop... we're surely building a floor.

Equity bears getting another opportunity to 'make a run for it', before we climb to at least 1950/60... I'm still guessing 1970/90.

VIX cooling.......... Bears...beware!  


10.37am... sp'1893, although VIX still only in the 22s.

Overall.. this is still flooring building time.

Lets see if we can get a turn around 11am.... regardless, I still see this as a time for equity bears to be closing out.

Notable weakness: airlines, UAL -5.4%.... Ebola concerns? Hmm

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures have recovered from overnight declines, we're set to open just a touch lower, sp -1pt, at 1905. Metals are vainly trying to bounce, Gold +$3. US equities look set to build a floor this week, around the 200 dma of 1904.


sp'daily5

Summary

Not surprisingly, futures did indeed turn around overnight

The first few days of this week will likely be about solidifying a floor around sp'1904, and then climbing into late October.
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Notable early movers, SDRL +5.5%, RIG +1.7%

DRYS -3.2% in the $1.80s...
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Good wishes for the week ahead


8.44am... indexes turning green ,sp +2pts... 1908..... but still., a few days of chop in the 1910/1890 range seem likely.

Notable weakness in Oil, -1.0%


9.01am.. It would seem DRYS is -9%, on news it has cancelled a bond auction..so... now there will be questions about whether it has the capital/cash it needs to keep operating.

Sunday night meanderings

Good evening. Futures are moderately lower, sp -8pts, we're set to open around 1898. Somewhat understandably, the mainstream are starting to get a bit twitchy with the last few days of declines. The market should be able to build a short term floor around these levels.


sp'weekly9 - fib retrace levels

Summary

Well, its been a very sleepy weekend. The news is pretty lousy, as the northern hemisphere starts to fully realise a long winter is ahead.

Sunday night futures are notoriously unreliable for the equity bears, and frankly, I'd not be surprised if they turn green by the time I wake up in another 12hrs.
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The following scenario is just something I am keeping in mind, and will get ditched if we consistently trade under 1900 in the current down cycle, but I don't think that likely. Similarly, any break much above 1990 in the next up wave... and the bears should be waving the white flag.

sp'daily4b

The ultimate issue is that any bounce, whether it is this week, next, or not until early November, will very likely just put in a lower high, and that is when the prime time for bears would arrive.


Oil for the deflationists

Its been some years of waiting, but we have a clear break of narrowing price structure... Oil is now lower for the fourth consecutive month.

WTIC Oil, monthly2, rainbow

$80 seems an easy target, and I will be looking for $70/65 early next spring.
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Doom chatter, with Hunter and Rickards



As ever, make of that... what you will.
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As for the week ahead... see the weekend post!

Goodnight from London...        back at the Monday open :)