2pm update - eyes on the VIX

Whilst equities remain somewhat resilient, the VIX is looking twitchy... with the underlying inclination on clawing back upward. The equity bears should be battling with everything they have to achieve a VIX close in the 17s. It would offer 18/19s tomorrow, with sp'1950/40s


VIX'daily3

Summary

*I remain annoyed at myself for not exiting at the open - when the VIX had a black-fail candle.. but then, I'm trying to trade a bigger equity down move..
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So...for me...its pretty clear... bears need a daily close in the sp'1960s.. with VIX 17s.

With two hours to go... it sure would get exciting if the bulls start hitting the exit button into the close.
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*I remain short from last Friday afternoon...seeking an exit in the 1950/40s.
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2.11pm.. This VIX sure is twitchy.... almost +9%... and it won't take much of a nudge.. and this market is going to get upset into the close.

yours... watching with a great deal of interest


2.21pm.. VIX +9.8%...on the rise.... bull maniacs in trouble now. They had their bounce this morning.... and with no QE fuel tomorrow... to end Q3....

Equity bears have everything in their favour... including the important weekly cycles.


2.29pm.. VIX is making a damn serious attempt to punch above the opening high of 17.08.

With 90mins to go...this could be one hell of a close!  Stay tuned!

1pm update - latter day weakness?

Having bounced (somewhat disturbingly) from sp'1964 to 1979.. the indexes are again seeing renewed weakness. For those equity bears seeking a key Alibaba top... the targets are clear, a daily close in the mid/low 1960s, with VIX in the 17s.


sp'weekly8

Summary

*after this mornings bounce I'm somewhat adverse to highlighting the smaller cycles. Weekly chart remains on SELL.

Without question, for the serious 'big money' out there, short-stops would be around last Friday's high of 1985.

Any move into the 1990s this week, and its white flag time. I hope it doesn't come to that. I'm tired of the low volatility..its frankly boring...and I think even the permabulls would dream to be buying 15/20% lower within a few months.
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So...3 hours to go..lets see if the bears can show some downside power...


1.30pm.. VIX holding moderate gains of 7%.... nothing special.... the only good thing for bears is we did see 17s at the open.

The remainder of the day...pretty critical.

12pm update - equity bears rattled

The bounce from the opening declines has been especially strong, and some bears are already waving the white flag, looking for new historic highs. Weekly cycles remain bearish, but if the indexes close positive today... then sp'1964 will mark just another higher low.


Dow, daily

VIX'daily3

Summary

*daily candle on the VIX is a real mess, how we close today is critical. Bears need >17.10.. but right now.. that looks damn difficult.
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For the bears... either we see a latter day sell off (and that is rarely the case in this market).... or this is going to mark just another higher low.

I guess at least its not boring, right?

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VIX update from Mr T.


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time for lunch


12.33pm.. chop chop.. sp -8pts.... but really... bears gotta see a daily close under the opening level..otherwise...daily reversal candles all over the place.

Similarly.. need VIX 17s.

Long afternoon ahead...