Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are flat, we're set to open at sp'1997. Metals are still sliding, Gold -$4, with Silver -0.6%. Equity bulls need a weekly close of sp'2003 to turn the weekly 'rainbow' chart back to outright bullish. First key support remains sp'1970.


sp'60min

Summary

*awaiting this mornings quartet of econ-data...
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Retail sales +0.6%.. in line.. so that is one for the bulls.
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As for today, yesterday's daily candle is suggestive of at least some upside this morning. I'd be surprised if we go much above 2005 though. The low sp'1970s still seem a viable target.. but clearly..that is not on the menu today.


Update from Mr C.


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Good wishes for Friday :)
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8.57am..  sp -2pts.. 1995.

Notable weakness: oil/gas drillers, RIG -0.9%.   SDRL -2.8% (see yesterdays fair value post)
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9.41am.. minor weakness... bears need 1988 to break the series of higher lows....

VIX +4.6%... but still... only the 13s. 

Oil prices remain weak

Despite a net daily gain of 1.2%, WTIC Oil continues to broadly slip from the early June high of $107. The $90 threshold looks very vulnerable, and if broken would offer at least another $5 decline into the autumn. Lower energy prices though... bullish for the oil based economy.


WTIC Oil, monthly'2, rainbow

Summary

We continue to hold the third consecutive red candle on the giant monthly 'rainbow' chart. The $90 threshold looks likely to fail in the immediate term, and that should offer a further $5 of downside - back to the April 2013 low of $85.

There are clearly a number of conflicting variables. On the bullish side, most economies are still growing. Further, the geo-political concerns are keeping a 'fear bid' on Oil, although it is surprisingly minor in size.

On the bearish side, the US dollar continues to climb for a third month. Being priced in USD, is naturally bearish on WTIC Oil.


Looking ahead

Friday will see a quartet of data, Retail sales, import/export prices, consumer sent', and busi' invents'. That should be plenty enough to get some price action in the early morning.

*next QE is not until next Monday, but even then, it will only amount to $1bn
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +1pt @ 1997. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.4% and 0.6% respectively. Near term outlook still offers a minor down wave to the low sp'1970s, before the primary upward trend reasserts itself.


sp'daily5

R2K

Summary

Little to add, on what was a pretty subdued day.

The daily candle for most indexes was something of a spike floor, and is suggestive of at least some further upside early Friday.
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a little more later....