Thursday, 4 September 2014

12pm update - just another minor down wave

Having broken new historic highs on a trio of key indexes, the market is cooling a little, slipping from sp'2011 to 2006. USD continues to build gains, +0.9% in the 83.60s. Metals are holding flat, whilst Oil/gas are both -0.8%.


sp'daily5


Summary

Today is very much just like yesterday..which itself was much like the previous day.

..you get the point.
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VIX update from Mr T.


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time for lunch

11am update - sp'2010

US equities have broken new historic highs for the Dow, sp'500, and NYSE Comp'. With the ECB cutting rates, along with a bond buying program, most world indexes are somewhat relieved. USD continues to build gains, +0.86%




sp'daily5


Summary

First...see



Probably one of my top ten movie scenes from my childhood.... but more on that later.. perhaps.
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Mr Market continues to climb.... and we've probably another 2% or so to go.

Equity bears need some patience.

I will look to short in FOMC/opex week...somewhere in the sp'2045/55 zone.
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11.30am.. chop chop... 2011 to 2007.... regardless...new highs....are new highs.

With the big jobs data tomorrow...still high threat of a weekly close in the 2020s.

10am update - new highs

The 'old leader' - Transports, has already broken a new historic high, and is a strong signal that the market will continue to broadly climb into next week. USD is +0.6%, and that remains a problem for commodity land. VIX is in melt mode.. -4%, in the 11s.


Trans, daily


Summary

So...EU lowers rates, and we have some kind of bond buying program - although the details on that remain VERY murky. I'm not sure anyone has a clue about how that will actually be implemented.. even Draghi seemed unable to answer the question.
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As for the market..well, we ain't lower. Sure, we're not 'soaring', but bulls have nothing to prove.

Daily/weekly cycles continue to offer 2025/30 in the immediate term, and that remains a threat to anyone currently short.


Notable reversal in AAPL, swinging from the 97s.. to $99, and set to re-take the $100 threshold. A daily close in the $100s would be pretty bullish, and re-open the door to $110.
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10.17am... New historic high on the Dow... NYSE comp'.. set to follow.

Best guess...2% higher to come..across the next two weeks...into opex/FOMC week..which would give us the sp'2045/55 zone.


10.34am... sp'2010.....